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Ever since the wedge between soft and hard data opened in 2017, Fathom posited that this could prove to be a false signal and argued that this gap was more likely to close as a result of weaker sentiment, rather than stronger growth. Since then, sentiment has fallen substantially — Fathom’s euro area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) fell from 1.3% in January 2018 to 0.4% in December of that year. However, growth in 2018 also slowed and the gap between soft and hard data consequently narrowed less than expected. The aggregate ESI stabilised at 0.4% in January and continues to outperform GDP in most member states. Fathom sees lower growth as reflecting a return to mean rather than a slide towards recession, with the expansion continuing broadly at its current pace of 0.2%, with loose policy offsetting headwinds from political uncertainty, weak external demand and disruption in the auto industry.
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