by Jharonne Martis.
Preliminary retail sales indicators for June show that teen clothing sales are the weakest sector. The Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index is expected to come in at -1.4% for June 2016, softer than June 2015’s 0.5% result. Excluding Gap, the apparel stores are expected to post the strongest June same-store sales.
Gap has the heaviest weighting in our apparel sector, and is looking at a -1.6% SSS estimate. It’s bringing down the whole group. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect apparel as a whole (including Gap) to report a -1.2% SSS, compared to the 0.5% SSS recorded in June 2015.
However, excluding Gap, the Apparel group is set to post a 1.2% gain, still lower than the 2.5% result posted in June 2015.
L Brands has the strongest estimate in this group at 2.1%, below last year’s 3.0% SSS. On the flip side, teen retailers The Buckle and Zumiez have the weakest SSS estimates in the group at -9.5% and -6.0%, respectively.
June marks the second month of the retail industry’s second quarter. Our Thomson Reuters Quarterly Same Store Sales Index, which consists of 80 retailers, is expected to post 0.9% growth for Q2 (vs. 1.4% in Q2 2015).
Exhibit 1. June 2016 SSS Estimates
Exhibit 2. L Brands is on Top, While The Buckle is Expected to Post the Weakest SSS
Source: I/B/E/S estimates