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May 18, 2017

Q1 2017 U.S. Retail and Restaurant Estimates

by Jharonne Martis.

Q1 2017 Thomson Reuters Retail and Restaurant Aggregate Estimates and Revisions

  • First quarter earnings are expected to increase 5.9% from Q1 2016.
  • 77% of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q1 2017 EPS.
  • Of the 171 companies in the Retail/Restaurant Index that have reported earnings to date for Q1 2017, 68% have reported earnings above analyst expectations.
  • The Q1 2017 blended revenue growth estimate is 4.2%.
  • 58% have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 42% reported revenue below analyst expectations.
  • For Q2 2017, there have been 30 negative EPS preannouncements issued compared to 9 positive EPS preannouncements.

What’s In Store For Retailers This Week?

Wal-Mart beats earnings and same store sales estimates, but misses on revenue. The retailer saw a 63% jump in e-commerce sales, its fourth consecutive quarter of growth. Additionally, it posted 11 straight quarters of positive US comp sales, and ten consecutive quarters of positive traffic.

Source: I/B/E/S estimates

Ross Stores will report 1Q 2017 after the market close today. Its result, will be very telling about the state of the US Consumer. TJX Companies missed Thomson Reuters estimates, while facing a difficult year-ago 7.0% Same Store Sales result. However, Ross Stores is facing an easier year-ago comparison of 2.0% SSS.

Source: I/B/E/S estimates

 Negative guidance – next quarter

Retailers are already warning us not to expect much in the next reporting cycle. We continue to receive more negative guidance.  For Q2 2017, there have been 30 negative EPS preannouncements issued compared to only 9 positive EPS pre-announcements. This is three times the amount of negative guidance from the beginning of the month (Exhibit 5). The bulk of the negative guidance (20%) comes from the apparel sector.

 Q2 2017 Earnings and Revenue Guidance

Source: I/B/E/S estimates

SAME STORE SALES:

Of the 43 retailers that have reported 1Q Same Store Sales, 31% exceeded estimates, while 69% missed.

Source: I/B/E/S estimates

RESTAURANT SAME STORE SALES:

Of the 37 restaurants that have reported 1Q Same Store Sales, 68% exceeded estimates, while 32% missed.

Source: I/B/E/S estimates

Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source I/B/E/S.

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