April 24, 2019

StarMine Models Pick North American Companies for 19Q1 Earnings Misses

by David Aurelio.

The StarMine team has selected five North American companies, using Eikon Screener by Refinitiv, that we expect to miss 19Q1 earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data.

Our North American selections for 2018 Q4 negative Predicted Surprises were 25% accurate, which can be seen here. Historically (since 2011 Q4), our negative Predicted Surprise picks have demonstrated an accuracy rate of about 64.8%, giving investors an edge ahead of earnings announcements.

Our North American picks for negative Predicted Surprises in 2019 Q1 are — Green Plains Inc (GPRE.O), US Concrete Inc (USCR.O), Clearway Energy Inc (CWEN.N), MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI.O), MDC Holdings Inc (MDC.N).

SmartEstimates® aim to provide earnings forecasts that are more accurate than I/B/E/S Consensus Estimates, by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of top-rated analysts. When SmartEstimates® diverge significantly from Consensus, you can anticipate the occurrence of earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates® are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.

Negative surprise predictions

Green Plains Inc (GPRE.O)

US Concrete Inc (USCR.O)

Clearway Energy Inc (CWEN.N)

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI.O)

MDC Holdings Inc (MDC.N)

Interested in learning how you can use the StarMine SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise® to avoid earnings misses and find earnings beats? Learn more here.

Each week the StarMine Earnings Surprise Forecast is published as part of the This Week in Earnings report. The forecast shows the S&P 500 companies with significant positive and negative Predicted Surprises expected to report over the next two weeks. Don’t be surprised when your holdings show up in This Week in Earnings, learn how to use Eikon from Refinitiv’s Screener app to see these companies ahead of publication here.

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