May 20, 2019

Chart of the Week: Fathom’s US ESI on the decline again in April

by Fathom Consulting.

After a small uptick in March, Fathom’s US Economic Sentiment Indicator (US ESI) declined again last month, touching a 29-month low of 3.8%. We have long argued that the gap between sentiment and real GDP growth would close – with the former likely to decline and the latter likely to increase. By and large this has taken place, albeit at a slower pace than we initially expected. Looking ahead, it would not be a surprise if both GDP growth and sentiment continued to tick down this year and into 2020, as the effects of the large fiscal stimulus package fade and the economy runs into capacity constraints. Last week’s economic data paint a mixed picture at the start of Q2: housing data – including starts, and the NAHB survey – suggest that the last year’s wobble in the housing market has stabilised; manufacturing data for April were soft; retail sales may have slipped in April, but this followed a very strong reading in March.

Refresh the chart in your browser Edit chart in Datastream

The chart in this article has been created using Chartbook on Datastream. The Chartbook was initially created by Fathom Consulting in 2012 and is now a catalogue of approximately 9000 charts, covering over 170 countries, analysing up-to-date macro and financial data. Whether it is a particular topic, country or variable you are interested in charting, the Chartbook has everything you need. To access Chartbook via Datastream search ‘cbook’.



Financial time series database which allows you to identify and examine trends, generate and test ideas and develop view points on the market.

Refinitiv offers the world’s most comprehensive historical database for numerical macroeconomic and cross-asset financial data which started in the 1950s and has grown into an indispensable resource for financial professionals. Find out more.

Get In Touch


We have updated our Privacy Statement. Before you continue, please read our new Privacy Statement and familiarize yourself with the terms.×