by Tajinder Dhillon.
In April 2019, we published our top ten Japan fiscal year 2019 earnings surprise candidates based on StarMine predictive analytics models. Of these FY19 Japan earnings surprise candidates picks, 90% were correct.
The StarMine SmartEstimate® is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate® differs significantly from the consensus (I/B/E/S Mean), the Predicted Surprise accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprises or further revisions 70% of the time. When significant Predicted Surprise for revenue is also present for the period, the accuracy improves to 78%.
Using SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data, we highlighted 10 companies with a high probability of reporting Full-Year earnings surprises in the direction we called — five likely to beat the analysts’ consensus estimate and another five likely to fall short.
Four of StarMine’s five FY19 Japan positive earnings surprise candidates reported earnings above the mean at the time of the Apr. 17, 2019 report, which can be viewed here
All of StarMine’s five FY19 Japan negative earnings surprise candidates reported earnings below the mean at the time of the Apr. 18, 2019 report, which can be viewed here
Interested in learning how you can use the StarMine SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise® to avoid earnings misses and find earnings beats? Learn more here.
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