From a cyclical perspective, India is a relatively isolated economy (gross trade over GDP = 27%), and is also a net importer, meaning that it would be shielded from short-term risks such as a global recession or a marked increase in trade frictions better than many other EMs. From a secular perspective, India’s positives include demographics and the significant potential for catch-up growth. India currently contributes a quarter of the growth in the world’s working-age population. In 2018, its population that was aged 15 to 64 increased by 12 million people. It has among the world’s youngest populations, with 732 million people under the age of 29 (54% of the population). These demographic trends stand in large contrast to advanced economies and other Emerging Markets, notably China. The question is: will this dividend be harnessed?
This Chart of the Week previews the interactive Webinar Fathom Consulting is presenting on the economic outlook for India. The invitation is open to all Refinitiv clients — the webinar will take place on Wednesday 18 September at 11:00am GMT. Register here to secure your place.
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