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The UK’s Chief Scientific Adviser indicated that the introduction of more stringent controls on movement would reduce the total number of COVID-19 related fatalities to below 20,000 in a good scenario. That figure, translated into fatalities per million inhabitants, is pictured in our chart, which serves to illustrate how much further this crisis has to run in such a ‘good’ scenario: the UK has barely started to climb the hill, whereas Italy is already half way up.
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