In February 2020 we published our top ten Asia fiscal year 2019 earnings surprise candidates based on StarMine predictive analytics models. Of these FY19 Asia earnings surprise candidates picks, 80% were correct.
The StarMine SmartEstimate® is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate® differs significantly from the consensus (IBES Mean), the Predicted Surprise accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprises or further revisions 70% of the time. When significant Predicted Surprise for revenue is also present for the period, the accuracy improves to 78%.
Using SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data, we highlighted 10 companies with a high probability of reporting Full-Year earnings surprises in the direction we called — five likely to beat the analysts’ consensus estimate and another five likely to fall short.
StarMine FY19 Asia Positive Earnings Surprise Results:
StarMine FY19 Asia Negative Earnings Surprise Results:
Interested in learning how you can use the StarMine SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise® to avoid earnings misses and find earnings beats? Learn more here.
