Q2 2020 Retail Scorecard – Update August 25, 2020

Eighty one percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q2 2020 EPS. Of the 167 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 78% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, and 22% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q2 2020 blended earnings growth estimate is -46.3%.

 The Q2 2020 blended revenue growth estimate is -3.9%. Seventy-four percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 26% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Retail earnings this week

Strong online momentum continues for Best Buy. Its online sales grew 242% in Q2 2020, and is already seeing a 175% spike in Q3. The retailer has also seen a spike in new customers whose houses have been converted into gyms, schools, restaurants and workplaces. As a result, the retailer also saw a spike in sales of computing, tablets, at-home fitness equipment and appliances.

Meanwhile, Urban Outfitters’ stock jumped on an earnings surprise. Its Free People division saw the strongest SSS growth at 11%, above its -20.4% SSS estimate. On the other hand, JW Nordstrom missed earnings and revenue estimates, but remains upbeat about the second half of the year.

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates/results – Week of August 25, 2020

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv