December 3, 2020

Q3 2020 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update December 3, 2020

by Jharonne Martis.

Ninety one percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q3 2020 EPS. Of the 187 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 90% have reported earnings above analyst expectations and 10% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q3 2020 blended earnings growth estimate is -6.8%.

The Q3 2020 blended revenue growth estimate is 5.0%. Seventy-nine percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 21% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Black Friday/Cyber Monday results

U.S. consumers are saying that the online shopping trend looks permanent, Refinitiv discovered in a survey collaboration with Maru/Blue Public Opinion. This survey suggests that about seven in ten Americans plan to continue shopping online vs. at brick-and-mortar retailers, even if a vaccine becomes available and the economy returns to “normal.”

The survey also shows that 73% of Americans who shopped for Black Friday deals shopped mainly online, and the remaining 27% went to the actual outlets. The bulk of Black Friday shoppers purchased items for themselves (25%), and the same can be said for Cyber Monday (34%).

Brand loyalty is also very important to shoppers, as 78% of respondents made their purchases at the stores where they originally planned to shop. The vast majority (68%) said that the purchases were things they would have bought any other time but waited for this time to do it, and 60% followed a specific shopping list for Black Friday.

Consumers still love to procrastinate when it comes to holiday shopping. Only 63% of shoppers are pretty much done with Christmas/festive holiday shopping. The element of impulse shopping still remains relevant to shoppers. Sixty-two percent of respondents indicated they made a spur- of-the-moment purchase during Black Friday/Cyber Monday.

As a result, about one third of Americans spent more on Black Friday this year than last year, spending $507.38 on average, while 37% spent less, and 33% spent about the same as last year.

Consumers took advantage of high discounts on apparel, the category with the highest average discounts. Fifty-two percent of survey respondents told us they opened their wallets for clothing/accessories, followed by toys, electronics and health and beauty products (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 2: Items U.S. Consumers Purchased on Black Friday 2020

Source: Maru/Blue Public Opinion Survey

Similar trends were seen for Cyber Monday: 37% of survey respondents told us they bought clothing/accessories, followed by electronics, health and beauty products and toys (Exhibit 3).

The survey findings and detailed tables can be found here:

Exhibit 3: Items U.S. Consumers Purchased on Cyber Monday 2020

Source: Maru/Blue Public Opinion Survey

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