Global, new, confirmed cases of COVID-19 have fallen by almost half since their peak in early January, while fatalities are down sharply too. It seems probable that a mixture of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), voluntary social distancing, existing immunity, seasonality and vaccinations have all played a role. Until now, disentangling the precise effects of each has proven challenging, making it difficult to forecast the evolution of the disease with any accuracy. However, there is good reason to believe that this will change as the impact from vaccines becomes increasingly pronounced.
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