May 28, 2021

Q1 2021 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update May 28, 2021

by Jharonne Martis.

Ninety-one percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q1 2021 EPS. Of the 184 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 88% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 2% matched and 10% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q1 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 121.6%.

The Q1 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 15.5%. Seventy-seven percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 23% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Q1 2021 retail earnings

Dollar General beat its earnings, same store sales and revenue estimates, and saw a -0.6% year-over-year change in sales from Q1 2020. During normal times, a -0.6% result could mean that a retailer is struggling. This year, however, for Dollar General it is an indication that their volume of business held up well – even well above its robust 2019 pre-pandemic levels (See exhibit below).

Exhibit 2: Dollar General Revenue: Q1 2019 – Q1 2021 

Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S

Similarly, Dollar Tree saw a 3% year-over-year growth in sales from Q1 2020, suggesting that the volume of business has held up well. Best Buy, Gap and Dollar Tree beat earnings, same store sales and revenue estimates and their Q1 2021 revenue results are above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Gap also raised its full year outlook. Meanwhile, Hibbett Sports continues to post double-digit comps, underlying the strong athletic trend seen during the pandemic.

Here are this week’s Q1 2021 earnings expectations:

Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates/Results –Q1 2021

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