June 18, 2021

This Week in Earnings 21Q1 | Jun. 18

by Tajinder Dhillon.

Last Update: Jun. 18, 2021

To download the full This Week in Earnings report click here.

Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Aggregate Estimates and Revisions

  • 21Q1 earnings are expected to increase 52.8% from 20Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 53.5%.
  • Of the 498 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q1, 87.3% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 76%.
  • 21Q1 revenue is expected to increase 13.6% from 20Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 14.4%.
  • During the week of June 21, seven S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.

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21Q1 Earnings Growth Highlights

The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 21Q1 is 52.8%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate improves to 53.5%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $413.4B in 21Q1, compared to share-weighted earnings of $270.5B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 505 constituents) in 20Q1.

Ten of the 11 sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 20Q1. The consumer discretionary and financials sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the utilities sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 20Q1.

The consumer discretionary sector has the highest earnings growth rate (225.1%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $32.0B in 21Q1, compared to earnings of $9.9B in 20Q1. Nineteen of the 21 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The automobile manufacturers (11183.8%) and specialty stores (6949.7%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 151.3%.

The financials sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (137.9%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $89.7B in 21Q1, compared to earnings of $37.7B in 20Q1. All twelve sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The consumer finance (871.7%) and diversified banks (295.1%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 60.6%.

The utilities sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (-0.9%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $11.7B in 21Q1, compared to earnings of $11.8B in 20Q1. Two of the five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The electric utilities (-9.6%) and independent power producers & energy traders (-3.4%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to 10.7%.

21Q2 Earnings Growth Highlights

The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 21Q2 is 64.0%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate declines to 51.1%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $376.9B in 21Q2, compared to share-weighted earnings of $229.8B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 505 constituents) in 20Q2.

Ten of the 11 sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 20Q2. The industrials and consumer discretionary sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the utilities sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 20Q2.

The industrials sector has the highest earnings growth rate (548.2%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $26.3B in 21Q2, compared to earnings of $4.1B in 20Q2. All seventeen sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The industrial conglomerates (275.3%) and aerospace & defense (210.5%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to 1129.5%.

The consumer discretionary sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (244.3%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $25.8B in 21Q2, compared to earnings of $7.5B in 20Q2. Twenty of the 21 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The leisure products (2305.7%) and restaurants (1932.1%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 206.7%.

The utilities sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (-0.1%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $10.0B in 21Q2, compared to earnings of $10.0B in 20Q2. Two of the five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The multi-utilities (-5.0%) and gas utilities (-3.4%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to 1.9%.

Exhibit 1: S&P 500 – Estimate Revisions by Sector

Exhibit 2: S&P 500 – Estimate Revisions History

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