July 30, 2021

This Week in Earnings 21Q2 | Jul. 30

by Tajinder Dhillon.

Last Update: Jul. 30, 2021

To download the full This Week in Earnings report click here.

Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Aggregate Estimates and Revisions

  • 21Q2 earnings are expected to increase 89.8% from 20Q2. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 75.0%.
  • Of the 296 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q2, 88.5% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 66% and prior four quarter average of 83%.
  • 21Q2 revenue is expected to increase 21.8% from 20Q2. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 18.1%.
  • During the week of August 2, 151 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.

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21Q2 Earnings Growth Highlights

The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 21Q2 is 89.8%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate declines to 75.0%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $432.4B in 21Q2, compared to share-weighted earnings of $227.8B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 505 constituents) in 20Q2.

All eleven sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 20Q2. The industrials and consumer discretionary sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the utilities sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 20Q2.

The industrials sector has the highest earnings growth rate (662.5%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $29.7B in 21Q2, compared to earnings of $3.9B in 20Q2. All seventeen sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The industrial conglomerates (317.7%) and aerospace & defense (276.0%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector.  If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to 1375.2%.

The consumer discretionary sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (341.9%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $33.0B in 21Q2, compared to earnings of $7.5B in 20Q2. Twenty of the 21 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The leisure products (5150.0%) and restaurants (2428.3%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector.  If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 296.3%.

The utilities sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (1.8%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $10.3B in 21Q2, compared to earnings of $10.1B in 20Q2. Two of the five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The gas utilities (-9.2%) and multi-utilities (-1.7%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector.  If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to 3.4%.

21Q3 Earnings Growth Highlights

The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 21Q3 is 29.7%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate declines to 23.4%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $414.8B in 21Q3, compared to share-weighted earnings of $319.9B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 505 constituents) in 20Q3.

All eleven sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 20Q3. The energy and industrials sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the utilities sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 20Q3.

The energy sector has the highest earnings growth rate (1353.5%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $18.4B in 21Q3, compared to earnings of $-1.5B in 20Q3. All five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The oil & gas exploration & production (1258.4%) and integrated oil & gas (856.6%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector.  If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 1149.3%.

The industrials sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (94.1%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $32.7B in 21Q3, compared to earnings of $16.8B in 20Q3. Fifteen of the 17 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The human resource & employment services (109.4%) and airlines (101.2%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector.  If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 21.6%.

The utilities sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (1.8%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $14.8B in 21Q3, compared to earnings of $14.5B in 20Q3. Two of the five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The gas utilities (-24.8%) and multi-utilities (-2.3%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector.  If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to 3.5%.

Exhibit 1: S&P 500 – Estimate Revisions by Sector

Exhibit 2: S&P 500 – Estimate Revisions History

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