November 18, 2021

Q3 2021 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update Nov. 18, 2021

by Jharonne Martis.

Seventy-nine percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q3 2021 EPS. Of the 160 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 78% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 1% matched and 21% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q3 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 14.7%.

The Q3 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 14.7%. Sixty-seven percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 33% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

EXHIBIT 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Retail earnings

As predicted by our StarMine data, Macy’s, Kohl’s, Bath & Body Works all posted positive surprises.

For Q3, the StarMine SmartEstimate data also shows investors can expect positive surprises from Foot Locker, Williams Sonoma and The Buckle. The later currently has an EPS mean forecast of $0.92 a share. However, there’s a five-star rated analyst with a very accurate rating that published a Bold Estimate, which is different (in this case higher) than the consensus estimate. The analyst expects The Buckle to report earnings of $1.00 a share, above the mean.

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates/Results –Q3 2021

Refinitiv I/B/E/S/ estimates

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