December 3, 2021

This Week in Earnings 21Q3 | Dec. 3

by Tajinder Dhillon and Thomas Alonso.

Last Update: Dec. 3, 2021

To download the full This Week in Earnings report click here.

Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Aggregate Estimates and Revisions

  • 21Q3 Y/Y earnings are expected to be 42.6%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 34.2%.
  • Of the 495 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q3, 81.0% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 65.8% and prior four quarter average of 84.7%.
  • 21Q3 Y/Y revenue is expected to be 17.0%. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 13.6%.
  • During the week of Dec. 6, 7 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.

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21Q3 Earnings Growth Highlights

The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 21Q3 is 42.6%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate declines to 34.2%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $453.7B in 21Q3, compared to share-weighted earnings of $318.3B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 505 constituents) in 20Q3.

All eleven sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 20Q3. The energy and materials sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the consumer staples sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 20Q3.

The energy sector has the highest earnings growth rate (1793.1%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $24.5B in 21Q3, compared to earnings of $-1.4B in 20Q3. All five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The oil & gas exploration & production (1670.5%) and integrated oil & gas (1116.6%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 1461.3%.

The materials sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (89.2%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $15.3B in 21Q3, compared to earnings of $8.1B in 20Q3. Eight of the ten sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The steel (1020.0%) and fertilizers & agricultural chemicals (645.9%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 60.8%.

The consumer staples sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (7.4%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $27.1B in 21Q3, compared to earnings of $25.3B in 20Q3. Two of the 12 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The distillers & vintners (-10.6%) and household products (-3.8%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to 11.2%.

21Q4 Earnings Growth Highlights

The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 21Q4 is 21.6%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate declines to 13.8%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $430.1B in 21Q4, compared to share-weighted earnings of $353.7B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 505 constituents) in 20Q4.

All eleven sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 20Q4. The energy and materials sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the utilities sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 20Q4.

The energy sector has the highest earnings growth rate (10370.1%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $27.2B in 21Q4, compared to earnings of $-0.3B in 20Q4. All five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The integrated oil & gas (2506.8%) and oil & gas exploration & production (1763.5%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 2560.9%.

The materials sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (61.7%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $15.0B in 21Q4, compared to earnings of $9.3B in 20Q4. Nine of the ten sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The steel (480.8%) and fertilizers & agricultural chemicals (201.5%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 34.8%.

The utilities sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (0.8%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $8.7B in 21Q4, compared to earnings of $8.6B in 20Q4. One of the five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The independent power producers & energy traders (0.0%) and multi-utilities (0.2%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to 1.1%.

Exhibit 1: S&P 500 – Estimate Revisions by Sector

Exhibit 2: S&P 500 – Estimate Revisions History

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Each week the StarMine Earnings Surprise Forecast is published as part of the This Week in Earnings report. The forecast shows the S&P 500 companies with significant positive and negative Predicted Surprises expected to report over the next two weeks. Don’t be surprised when your holdings show up in This Week in Earnings, learn how to use Eikon from Refinitiv’s Screener app to see these companies ahead of publication here.

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