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January 20, 2022

Breakingviews: Goldman Sachs goes back to the balance sheet

by Breakingviews.

The good times of 2021 were very good for Goldman Sachs. The Wall Street firm reported record investment banking revenue and a 12-year high for trading, and its $1.6 billion fourth-quarter advisory fees were second only to the three months before. As markets cool, the spotlight will turn to business for which the $128 billion Goldman uses its balance sheet, like consumer bank Marcus. There’s growth to be had for boss David Solomon, but it isn’t coming cheap.

An avalanche of dealmaking has played to Goldman’s strengths. That wasn’t lost on its bankers, though. Goldman’s compensation rose 33% for the year, almost triple the increase at rival JPMorgan’s investment bank. Pay has fallen as a share of revenue over time, partly because Goldman has been hiring more back-office staff. Deals are still coming, though Goldman’s backlog of transactions fell in the fourth quarter.

If bankers are working harder, so is Goldman’s capital. In its trading arm, revenue that comes from financing clients accounted for all of the year’s markets-based growth and then some. Goldman is buying other lenders’ mortgages, and its balances from hedge funds are at record levels. The firm’s risk-weighted assets have increased by more than one-fifth in just a year.

Then there’s consumer banking, which includes credit card and installment loans to consumers. This business, at which Goldman would once have turned up its nose, is growing and that will continue as interest rates rise. At present, Goldman has around $12 billion of credit card and installment loans.

Executives used to talk about Marcus one day generating pre-tax profit equivalent to 3.5% of its assets. The catch is that this kind of activity is far more competitive than the rarefied business of advising on mergers. Consumer banking and wealth management lost money in the fourth quarter, which makes that target pie in the sky for now.

Things aren’t likely to get easier any time soon, helping to explain the 8% drop in Goldman’s shares after it reported its earnings on Tuesday morning. JPMorgan plans to lavish 35% more dollars on marketing in 2022, mostly on credit card promotions. For Goldman, deploying its balance sheet more generously looks logical. It may be a while before it’s a major source of profit.

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