Our Privacy Statment & Cookie Policy

All LSEG websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.

June 14, 2022

StarMine 22Q1 Russell 1000 Earnings Surprise Results

by Tajinder Dhillon and Thomas Alonso.

In April 2022 we published our 22Q1 earnings surprise candidates based on StarMine predictive analytics. Using the Russell 1000 Index as our universe, our 22Q1 earnings surprise predictions scored 90% correct.

The StarMine SmartEstimate®  is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our research has shown that when the SmartEstimate® differs significantly from the consensus (I/B/E/S Mean), the Predicted Surprise accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprises or further revisions 70% of the time. When significant Predicted Surprise for revenue is also present for the period, the accuracy improves to 78%.

Since 2011 Q4, we’ve posted our top 10 North American candidates for earnings beats and misses. The running total from 2011 Q4 through 2022 Q1 of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates is 68.2% and 16.7% for companies that missed. Over this same period, StarMine North American positive surprise candidates have been correct 83.7% of the time and correctly called 68.6% of negative surprise candidates.

StarMine North American Positive Earnings Surprise History vs. S&P 500 Beat Rate:

StarMine North American Negative Earnings Surprise History vs. S&P 500 Miss Rate:

Using SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data, we highlighted 10 companies with a high probability of reporting 22Q1 earnings surprises in the direction we called — five likely to beat the analysts’ consensus estimate and another five likely to fall short.

StarMine 22Q1 Russell 1000 Positive Earnings Surprise Results:

StarMine 22Q1 Russell 1000 Negative Earnings Surprise Results:

Interested in learning how you can use the StarMine SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise® to avoid earnings misses and find earnings beats? Learn more here.

Refinitiv offers a powerful combination of content, analytics and tools for better investment research, find out more.



Get In Touch


We have updated our Privacy Statement. Before you continue, please read our new Privacy Statement and familiarize yourself with the terms.x