Jharonne Martis
August 16, 2022

Q2 2022 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update August 16, 2022

by Jharonne Martis.

To date, 146 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their earnings results for Q2 2022, representing 72% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 73% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 2% delivered on-target results and 25% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2022 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at
-6.5%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 9.1% for Q2 2022. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 60% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 40% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv 

This week: Q2 2022 earnings

Walmart and Home Depot beat their Q2 2022 earnings, revenue and same store sales estimates. This shows that the consumer is still engaged despite macroeconomic worries. The Walmart numbers are in line with the Refinitiv Consumer Confidence data which shows consumer sentiment was down in May and June, but picked up in July. Moreover, the low-end consumer continues to trade down, while the middle-class consumer continues to look for value.  At this time last year, Walmart membership count reached an all-time high. This year, membership income grew by 25.6% on top of last year’s level. This suggests that consumers continue to gravitate to Walmart for everyday values.

Meanwhile, Home Depot reported the highest quarterly sales and earnings in its history. In a time when the housing market seems to be cooling down, demand for home improvement projects is strong. Its average ticket rose by nearly 10% per trip.

The following chart displays estimates of earnings and same store sales expectations for retailers that are scheduled to release their Q2 2022 results this week.

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates–Q2 2022
Source: Eikon Workspace.

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