Jharonne Martis
August 15, 2022

Q2 2022 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update August 15, 2022

by Jharonne Martis.

To date, 144 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their earnings results for Q2 2022, representing 71% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 73% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 2% delivered on-target results and 25% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2022 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at -7.1%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 9.0% for Q2 2022. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 60% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 40% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

This week: Q2 2022 earnings

Retail sales and earnings are in focus this week. Walmart and Home Depot were the first to report Q2 2022 earnings. Looking at revenue, Walmart and Home Depot are on track to report growth of 6.9% and 5.5%, respectively. However, Walmart earnings are expected to drop -8.9%, while Home Depot’s earnings are expected to grow by 9.1%. Walmart’s core consumers are no longer receiving their stimulus checks this year, in a time when they are being hit with higher prices. The discounter has warned about high inventory levels, which means aggressive discounts might be needed to move inventory.

Still, Walmart’s e-commerce is expected to grow a robust 18.3%, while Home Depot is expected to see a 1.3% e-commerce growth for Q2 2022.

Exhibit 2: Digital Sales Growth Estimates – Q2 2022

Source: Eikon Workspace

The following chart displays estimates of earnings and same store sales expectations for retailers that are scheduled to release their Q2 2022 results this week.

Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates–Q2 2022

Source: Eikon Workspace

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