The hosting of the UN’s climate conference later this year in Dubai, part of the United Arab Emirates, has been criticised by some who worry that the interests of the fossil fuel industry will be prioritised over the need to decarbonise rapidly. Highlighting the tensions, a group of US Congress members and Members of the European Parliament recently called for Sultan Al Jaber, the president of the climate conference who is also the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, to step down. As the charts below show, the UAE and other Gulf nations have some of the largest oil and gas reserves in the world.
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Such concerns should be taken seriously, but the hosting of the conference in the UAE can also be viewed in a more positive light: it will be much harder for the world to meet its goals without the backing of petrol states or the energy sector. This may explain why some senior climate diplomats, such as John Kerry, support Mr Al Jaber’s COP presidency.
The transition will also present business opportunities to Gulf states who, given their reliable, year-round sunshine, can produce renewable solar electricity more cheaply than many other countries — a point that Mr Al Jaber knows well as the chairman of Masdar, a renewable energy company. Indeed, the UAE has been ramping up its renewable electricity production in recent years.
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Furthermore, parts of the existing oil and gas infrastructure could be used to transport hydrogen or for carbon capture and storage, two energy industries of the future. It is therefore not surprising that Mr Al Jaber has spoken about the opportunities that the transition creates.
Self-interest and realpolitik aside, it is important to focus on what the scientists think and the views of those people living in regions which are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change and less able to adapt. African countries make up nine out of the top ten countries most exposed to the worst effects of climate change, according to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, one of a series of useful energy- and climate-related sovereign datasets now available on Datastream (lower scores indicate greater vulnerability). The global North will need to explain to these countries what they are doing to keep a temperature increase of 1.5C alive – hard cash will help, to pay for loss and damage, adaptation and transition support.
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The UAE itself will also have some explaining to do: despite the recent increase, only 11% of its electricity comes from low-carbon sources. While this is a lot higher than the other five members of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), it is much lower than all the G7 countries and most BRICS. What is more, annual CO2 emissions per capita are also much higher in the GCC than most other countries.
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The views expressed in this article are the views of the author, not necessarily those of Refinitiv Lipper or LSEG.
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