by Tajinder Dhillon.
In July 2023 we published our 23Q2 earnings surprise candidates based on StarMine predictive analytics. Using the Russell 1000 Index as our universe, our earnings surprise predictions scored 80% correct.
The StarMine SmartEstimate® is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our research has shown that when the SmartEstimate® differs significantly from the consensus (I/B/E/S Mean), the Predicted Surprise accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprises or further revisions 70% of the time. When significant Predicted Surprise for revenue is also present for the period, the accuracy improves to 78%.
Since 2011 Q4, we’ve posted our earnings surprise candidates for earnings beats and misses. The running total from 2011 Q4 through 2023 Q2 of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates is 68.5% and 15.7% for companies that missed. Over this same period, the LSEG Proprietary Research team’s positive surprise candidates have been correct 84.2% of the time and correctly called 68.5% of negative surprise candidates.
StarMine Positive Earnings Surprise History vs. S&P 500 Beat Rate:
StarMine Negative Earnings Surprise History vs. S&P 500 Miss Rate:
Using SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data, we highlighted 10 companies with a high probability of reporting 23Q2 earnings surprises in the direction we called — five likely to beat the analysts’ consensus estimate and another five likely to fall short.
Interested in learning how you can use the StarMine SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise® to avoid earnings misses and find earnings beats? Learn more here.
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