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June 17, 2024

Chart of the Week: A French election surprise

by Fathom Consulting.

President Macron’s decision to call a snap election of the French parliament following the success of the French far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) in the European parliamentary elections earlier this month appears a risky gamble. On the one hand, as the chart shows, economic confidence amongst French households – while still below the long-term average – is in a better place than it was in 2022, when Mr Macron’s party Ensemble lost its parliamentary majority. However, polling in the immediate aftermath of the European elections places support for Ensemble at 19%, well behind both RN (33%) and the newly formed left-wing alliance (30%). It seems unlikely that Mr Macron will fully restore his party’s majority in the Assemblée Nationale, but he is perhaps hoping that when faced with the prospect of far-right rule on the national stage, French voters will say ‘Non, merci!’. Equally, he could be trying to get ahead of any motions of parliamentary censure that were likely to arise in the aftermath of the European election results. Regardless, the athletes won’t be the only ones battling it out in Paris this summer.

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The views expressed in this article are the views of the author, not necessarily those of LSEG.


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