Nvidia’s earnings could be the most consequential of the quarter, as the final member of the ‘Magnificent 7’ reports on November 19—likely setting the tone for how investors view AI-led growth heading into next year. So far, the Mag-7 group has delivered exceptional results once again, delivering aggregate earnings growth of 28.4%—nearly doubling expectations at the start of the quarter—and marking 10 consecutive quarters of 20%+ growth. The aggregate earnings surprise of 14.1% was also the highest in two years. Nvidia will have the largest impact on where the final Mag-7 and S&P 500 growth rates land, given its outsized contribution and is responsible for one-third of the Mag-7 group’s earnings growth this quarter.
The EPS SmartEstimate stands at $1.25 per share, slightly above the consensus of $1.24, while revenue is projected at $55.1 billion versus the consensus of $54.8 billion. In the past week alone, eight new analyst estimates have been published—all above consensus—ranging from $1.26 to $1.32. Based on these figures, Nvidia’s year-over-year SmartGrowth rate is 53.8% for earnings and 57.1% for revenue, placing Nvidia in the coveted “50/50 Club” —one of only nine S&P 500 companies to grow both revenue and earnings by at least 50% in Q3. Analysts will focus on the Data Center segment, which accounts for 88% of total revenue, and is expected to grow 57.9% to $48.6 billion.
Heading into the print, analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish. Only one analyst has a sell rating, compared to 59 analysts with either a Buy or Strong Buy recommendation rating. More importantly, estimates continue to rise for both the current and next fiscal year, rewarding Nvidia with an Analyst Revision Model (ARM) score of 93 (out of 100)—placing it in the top decile relative to North America Peers and indicative of future upward revisions (Nvidia has an ARM score of 80 relative to its Semiconductor peers). Over the past 90 days, FY2027 EPS and revenue estimates have been raised by 12% and 10%, respectively, making Nvidia one of only 19 companies in the Russell 1000 to see double digit upward revisions on both the top and bottom line. Additionally, two 5-star analysts have issued ‘Bold’ estimates for FY2027 that are up to 22% above consensus.
Nvidia has a forward three-year annualized revenue growth rate of 37.9% and 39.2% for EPS, while trading at a forward P/E of 30.7x. Its valuation may appear stretched at first glance, as indicated by its bottom quintile ranking on both the Relative Value and Intrinsic Value models. Yet despite being the most valuable company in the world with a market cap of $4.7 trillion, only two other companies in the Russell 1000 have both higher growth projections and a lower valuation multiple—highlighting how rare Nvidia’s growth-to-valuation profile is at this scale, assuming current growth expectations are realized.
