Four of the Mag‑7 – Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla – report after the bell on Jan 28. As a group, the Mag-7 is expected to grow earnings by 21.5% in Q4, marking the slowest pace since 2023. Still, in absolute terms, earnings are expected to reach an all-time high of $159 billion, based on analyst estimates. Even with tougher year-ago comparisons, the Mag-7 is still expected to grow Q4 earnings at more than twice the pace of the broader S&P 500, which is forecasted to grow earnings by 9.2%.
In recent years, the Mag-7 has driven the lion’s share of overall index earnings growth. Against this backdrop, a key development is the shift in expectations: while the group remains highly profitable, its relative contribution to index earnings growth is expected to decline versus recent years. This dynamic helps explain the increasing focus on broader market participation from the S&P-493 in the quarters ahead.
A closer look at the Mag-7’s headline growth rate also highlights a high degree of internal concentration. Recent earnings strength has been driven disproportionately by Nvidia. Excluding Nvidia, aggregate earnings for the remaining ‘Lag‑6’ falls in half from 21.5% to 11.8% – only modestly above the overall index.
This concentration risk is reflected in valuations, with the Mag-7 continuing to command a significant premium to the broader index, supported by superior revenue and earnings growth and an aggregate net profit margin exceeding 25%. The group trades at 28.3x forward earnings, versus 22.2x for the index and 20.0x for the S&P‑493. On a price‑to‑sales basis, the Mag‑7 trades at 7.8x versus 3.0x for the index and 2.2x for the S&P‑493.
Year‑to‑date, the $21.5 trillion group has lagged the S&P 500 Equal‑Weighted Index, up 3.7%, lending early support to the ‘rotation’ theme. Sell-side analyst sentiment is telling a similar story when looking at the StarMine Analyst Revision Model (ARM) – every name has seen its ARM score decline over the past 90 days, signaling downward earnings revisions, with Meta and Tesla showing the sharpest fall. ARM scores are ranked from 1 (bearish) to 100 (bullish).
Tesla also enters earnings season with a Predicted Surprise (PS%) flag outside the ±2% range. This signal compares the StarMine SmartEstimate – which places greater weight on the most accurate and timely analysts – to the consensus estimate. Historically, when these flags occur, StarMine correctly predicts the direction of the earnings surprise roughly 70% of the time, implying a higher probability of Tesla missing expectations, while Amazon is expected to beat.
Prior Editions of the StarMine Spotlight:
(#003): StarMine Flags Credit Rating Divergence Amid Oracle’s AI Push – Dec 9. 2025
#002: StarMine Flags Strong Analyst Sentiment Ahead of Nvidia Earnings – Nov 18. 2025
#001: Meta’s Spending Spree – StarMine Signals $105 Billion CapEx by 2026 – Nov 5. 2025
