The ‘Big 6’ U.S. banks kick off Q3 earnings season tomorrow, with aggregate earnings expected to grow 14%, according to StarMine SmartGrowth estimates—nearly three times the broader Financials sector, which is forecast to post its weakest growth since 2022.
Fundamentals look encouraging, with aggregate loan growth expected to rise 11.4%, while net interest margins are forecast to improve slightly for JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Citi.
However, StarMine Predicted Surprise signals potential earnings misses for BAC and Goldman Sachs (GS). If realised, these would mark BAC’s first earnings miss since 2020 and GS’s first since 2023.
Analyst sentiment remains mixed among the ‘Big 6’, with JPM and Wells Fargo the only banks holding StarMine Analyst Revisions Model (ARM) scores above 70 (1 = bearish, 100 = bullish). Over the past 75 days, BAC, GS and Morgan Stanley have experienced the largest deterioration in ARM scores, with BAC recording the lowest score at 30.
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