Meta just had its worst day in 3 years – shares plunged 11.3% after earnings, as concerns on CapEx spending overshadowed beats on both the top and bottom line. Despite a projected 3-year revenue CAGR of 17.7% and EPS CAGR of 13.2%, Meta now trades at a forward P/E of 21.3x – the lowest among the Mag-7.
Meta reported EPS of $7.25 vs $6.69 consensus. The StarMine SmartEstimate, which places a greater weight on the most recent and historically accurate analyst forecasts, was $6.94 – signaling a statistically significant +3.69% Predicted Surprise: an early indicator that Meta was likely to beat expectations.
On the earnings call, management noted, “Our current expectation is that CapEx dollar growth will be notably larger in 2026 than 2025.” For context, Meta’s CapEx has more than doubled since 2022, reaching nearly $70 billion this year – ranking 4th in the Russell 1000, only behind Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon.
Although Meta didn’t provide specific CapEx figures for next year, the StarMine SmartEstimate suggests CapEx spending will exceed $105 billion in FY 2026, +15% above the consensus estimate. Based on StarMine’s SmartEstimate for revenue of $235.8 billion, that implies a CapEx intensity ratio of 44.9%, the highest among the Mag-7 group.
Looking deeper into the SmartEstimate, we see two Bold Estimates – a signal reserved for highlighting conviction amongst the top-rated analysts covering a company. A Bold Estimates occurs when a 5‑Star analyst issues a forecast that significantly diverges from consensus, often signaling strong conviction and a view that could influence how other analysts adjust their forecasts. StarMine ranks analysts on a 1–5 Star scale based on their historical accuracy for a specific company, with 5 Stars reserved for roughly the top 10% of analysts – making their forecasts relevant for decision-making.
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