S&P 500 Earnings Insight: Q2 Growth Expectations Top 20% for Second Straight Quarter

Consensus expects Q2 earnings growth of 24.4%, up from 15.2% at the start of the year, led by Technology and Energy, with the chart below highlighting the 10 companies contributing most to the increase in expectations.

With higher growth expectations now priced in, we look to the StarMine Predicted Surprise (PS%) to identify which companies below are still expected to clear the higher bar set by analysts. A PS% above 2% (or below -2%) is statistically significant and predictive of an earnings surprise.

Only Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips have a PS% above 2%, while Chevron has a PS% of -7.4%. Micron provided an early example of the signal’s effectiveness, carrying a PS% of 3.6% ahead of earnings before going on to deliver a 20.9% earnings surprise.

Nearly every company on the list has a bullish StarMine Analyst Revision Model (ARM) score above 70, reinforcing the strength of recent earnings estimate revisions.