S&P 500 Earnings Insight: The Hidden Value of SmartEstimate During Earnings Season

~75% of companies have now reported, with 85% beating analyst EPS expectations—one of the highest beat rates on record. Strength has been broad-based, led by Health Care (98 beat rate%), Technology (93%) and Financials (88%).

To identify potential earnings beats and misses, StarMine SmartEstimate acts as a leading indicator of consensus, placing greater weight on more timely estimates from historically more accurate analysts. The resulting difference between SmartEstimate and consensus—captured by StarMine Predicted Surprise—can persist for weeks before earnings. As more analysts update their estimates, consensus often converges towards SmartEstimate, which can influence stock performance ahead of earnings.

Despite this convergence, statistically significant StarMine Predicted Surprise signals (>|2%|) can still persist right up to the earnings announcement—as illustrated below.