Since President Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2025, the U.S. has been the worst performing stock market of the entire G7. While Trump likes to shoot from the hip when it comes to economic policy, investors in U.S. assets, it seems, do not appreciate this approach. The uncertainty created by further tariffs is also creating a headache for firms who are trying to figure out how their supply chains are going to be impacted, and to what extent higher costs will reduce their competitiveness, thereby negatively impacting their share prices. Exhibit 1: Performance of G7 stock markets One way

Each quarter, the LSEG Proprietary Research team publishes an earnings season forecast, where we identify five companies we expect to beat earnings expectations and five companies we predict will miss. Our analysis focuses on companies within the Russell 1000 index, leveraging analytics from the StarMine SmartEstimate and Predicted Surprise available in LSEG Workspace. These tools help us refine consensus estimates and highlight potential market surprises by overweighting the more timely and accurate analysts, allowing us to pinpoint discrepancies and deliver sharper predictions for the upcoming earnings season. Our Russell 1000 selections for 2024 Q2 were 70% accurate, which can be

Earnings season kicks off this week and we preview the S&P 500 2024 Q2 earnings season in granular detail, providing both aggregate and company-level insights using data from I/B/E/S, StarMine, and Datastream, which are all found in the desktop solution LSEG Workspace. Earnings Commentary Q2 aggregate earnings are forecasted to reach a new all-time high, with a current estimate of $492.8 billion (+10.1% y/y, +4.4% q/q).  Growth expectations have only declined moderately by 40 basis points (bps) heading into earnings season, much less than the typical 300 bps downward revision we usually find.  Energy saw the largest downgrade of 450

The StarMine team has selected five Russell 1000 companies, using LSEG Workspace, that we expect to miss 24Q2 earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data. Our Russell 1000 selections for 2024 Q1 were 90% accurate, which can be viewed here. Our Russell 1000 picks for negative Predicted Surprises in 24Q2 are Charter Communications (CHTR.OQ), FMC (FMC.N), Phillips 66 (PSX.N), SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE.N), and Capri Holdings (CPRI.N) SmartEstimates® aim to provide earnings forecasts that are more accurate than I/B/E/S Consensus Estimates, by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of top-rated analysts. When SmartEstimates® diverge significantly from Consensus, you can anticipate

The StarMine team has selected five Russell 1000 companies, using LSEG Workspace, that we expect to beat 24Q2 earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data. Our Russell 1000 selections for 2024 Q1 were 90% accurate, which can be viewed here. Our Russell 1000 picks for positive Predicted Surprises in 24Q2 are CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW.OQ), Meta Platforms (META.OQ), MGM Resorts (MGM.N), Amazon.com (AMZN.OQ), and Paylocity Holding (PCTY.OQ). SmartEstimates® aim to provide earnings forecasts that are more accurate than I/B/E/S Consensus Estimates, by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of top-rated analysts. When SmartEstimates® diverge significantly from Consensus, you can anticipate

In April 2024, we published our 24Q1 earnings surprise candidates based on StarMine predictive analytics. Using the Russell 1000 Index as our universe, our earnings surprise predictions scored 90% correct. The StarMine SmartEstimate®  is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our research has shown that when the SmartEstimate® differs significantly from the consensus (I/B/E/S Mean), the Predicted Surprise accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprises or further revisions 70% of the time. When significant Predicted Surprise for revenue is also present for the period, the accuracy improves to 78%. Since

The StarMine team has selected five Russell 1000 companies, using LSEG Workspace, that we expect to beat 23Q4 earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data. Our Russell 1000 selections for 2023 Q3 were 90% accurate, which can be viewed here. Our Russell 1000 picks for positive Predicted Surprises in 23Q4 are Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.OQ), Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK.N), Twilio Inc (TWLO.N), Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN.OQ), and Snowflake Inc (SNOW.N) SmartEstimates® aim to provide earnings forecasts that are more accurate than I/B/E/S Consensus Estimates, by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of top-rated analysts. When SmartEstimates® diverge significantly from Consensus, you

Earnings season kicks off this week and we preview the S&P 500 2023 Q3 earnings season in granular detail, providing both aggregate and company-level insights using data from I/B/E/S, StarMine, and Datastream, which are all found in the desktop solution LSEG Workspace. Earnings Commentary The first half of the year has been far better than expected when comparing expectations at the start of the year which was a more doom and gloom narrative along with the possibility of an earnings recession. However, both Q1 and Q2 posted a stronger than expected quarter with an improvement in the final earnings growth

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been consistent in his mantra of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates, while U.K. Governor Andrew Bailey has warned that it is ‘very premature’ to lower interest rates. While both banks share a similar view of higher for longer, the impact to the local housing market has been remarkably different. In the U.S., the 525 basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate over the last 19 months has resulted in a 30-year mortgage rate rising to a 23-year high of 7.31% according to LSEG Datastream.  The U.K. is not far behind, having raised rates

Large-cap U.S. equities have rallied year-to-date by approximately nine percent (as of May 29th) and appear to show resiliency in the face of a potential recession.  However, when dissecting the index and going ‘underneath the hood’, we note that the year-to-date performance from a contribution perspective has been solely driven by the ‘Big 8’ stocks which consists of Apple Inc, Microsoft Inc, Nvidia Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Meta Platforms Inc, Tesla Inc, and Alphabet Inc (which has two share classes). Using Refinitiv Datastream, we look at the Russell 1000 and find that the top seven companies ranked by market capitalization (eight

To date, 151 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2023, representing 74% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 79% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and 20% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 32.3%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 4.4% for Q1 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 75% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

The first month of 2023 (and the last month of the retail industry’s Q4 2022) saw America’s largest party supply store file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, a move that the StarMine credit models had predicted about a year ago. The rise in inflation has caused consumers to hold back on discretionary spending. The latest Refinitiv consumer confidence reading also indicates that consumers are concerned about their purchasing power, job security and future expectations. All of this is affecting consumers’ willingness to open up their wallets and hurting retail sales. According to the StarMine Combined Credit Risk (CCR) model, the most