Monday Morning Memo: Review of the European ETF Market, November 2018

The promoters of ETFs in Europe enjoyed net inflows for November. These inflows led, in combination with a positive performance of the underlying markets, to increased assets under management in the European ETF industry. In more detail, the assets under management in the European ETF industry increased from €657.1 bn as of October 30, 2018, to €666.6 bn at the end of November. The decrease of €9.5 bn for November was driven by the performance of the underlying markets (+€5.5 bn), while net sales contributed inflows of €3.9 bn to assets under management in the European ETF segment.

With regard to the overall number of products, it was not surprising that equity funds (€474.7 bn) held the majority of the assets, followed by bond funds (€162.5 bn), commodity products (€18.4 bn), “other” funds (€5.4 bn), money market funds (€4.0 bn), mixed asset funds (€1.0 bn), and alternative UCITS products (€0.4 bn).

Graph 1: Market Share, Assets Under Management in the European ETF Segment by Asset Type, November 30, 2018

Source: Lipper

Fund Flows by Asset Type

After quite shy net inflows for October, the net inflows in the European ETF industry for November (+€3.9 bn) were above the rolling 12-month average (+€3.7 bn). The inflows into ETFs were quite surprising since investors shied away from mutual funds in October as a result of the ongoing uncertainty in the global markets driven by the new tariff regime in the U.S., a possible upcoming euro crisis (caused by Italy), and a possible “no deal” Brexit. Therefore, it was surprising that equity ETFs were the asset type with the highest net inflows (+€2.6 bn), followed by bond ETFs (+€1.5 bn), money market ETFs (+€0.1 bn), and mixed asset ETFs (+€0.03 bn). Conversely, commodity ETFs (-€0.3 bn) faced the highest outflows, bettered by “other” ETFs (-€0.1 bn) and alternative UCITS ETFs (-€0.04 bn).

This flow pattern drove the overall net flows to +€40.0 bn for 2018 year-to-date.

Graph 2: Estimated Net Sales, November 2018 (Euro Millions)

Source: Lipper

Assets Under Management by Lipper Global Classifications

With regard to the Lipper global classifications, the European ETF market was split into 159 different peer groups. The highest assets under management at the end of November were held by funds classified as Equity US (€128.8 bn), followed by Equity Global (€62.4 bn), Equity Eurozone (€49.0 bn), and Equity Europe (€37.5 bn), as well as Equity Emerging Markets Global (€31.4 bn). These five peer groups accounted for 46.40% of the overall assets under management in the European ETF segment, while the ten top classifications by assets under management accounted for 60.17%. Overall, 18 of the 159 peer groups each accounted for more than 1% of the assets under management. In total, these 18 peer groups accounted for €475.8 bn, or 71.38%, of the overall assets under management. In addition, it was noteworthy that the rankings of the largest peer groups were quite stable, indicating that European investors use the funds from these peer groups as core holdings and not just as so-called satellites that are bought and sold frequently to implement asset allocation views in investors’ portfolios. These numbers showed that assets under management in the European ETF industry continued to be highly concentrated.

Graph 3: Ten Top Lipper Global Classifications by Assets Under Management, November 30, 2018 (Euro Millions)

Source: Lipper

The peer groups on the other side of the table showed that some funds in the European ETF market are quite low in assets and risk being closed in the near future. They are obviously lacking investor interest and might therefore not be profitable for the respective fund promoters (Please read our report: “Is there a consolidation ahead in the European ETF industry?” for more details on this topic.)

Graph 4: Ten Smallest Lipper Global Classifications by Assets Under Management, November 30, 2018 (Euro Millions)

Source: Lipper

Fund Flows by Lipper Global Classifications

With regard to the overall sales for November, it was not surprising equity funds (+€6.2 bn) dominated the table of the ten best selling peer groups by net flows, while the peer group count was equally split between bond and equity funds. The best selling Lipper global classification for November was once again Equity US (+€2.5 bn), followed by Equity Global (+€2.4 bn) and Equity Europe (+€0.6 bn).

The net inflows of the ten best selling Lipper classifications equalled to 199.44% of the overall net inflows. These numbers showed that the European ETF segment is also highly concentrated with regard to fund flows by sectors. Generally speaking, one would expect the flows into ETFs to be concentrated, since investors often use ETFs to implement their market views and short-term asset allocation decisions. These products are made, and therefore are easy to use, for these purposes.

Graph 5: Ten Best and Worst Selling Lipper Global Classifications by Estimated Net Sales, November 2018 (Euro Millions)

Source: Lipper

On the other side of the table, the ten peer groups with the highest net outflows for November accounted for €4.1 bn of outflows. Equity UK (-€0.9 bn) faced the highest net outflows, bettered by Equity Eurozone (-€0.5 bn) and Bond USD High Yield (-€0.5 bn).

Assets Under Management by Promoters

A closer look at the assets under management in the European ETF industry by promoters also showed high concentration, since only 20 of the 50 ETF promoters in Europe held assets at or above €1.0 bn each. The largest ETF promoter in Europe—iShares (€305.1 bn)—accounted for 45.77% of the overall assets under management, far ahead of the number-two promoter—Xtrackers (€72.2 bn)—and the number-three promoter—Lyxor ETF (€65.0 bn). (To learn more about the concentration of the European ETF market at the promoter level, please read our report: Spotlight on the concentration at the promoter level in the European ETF industry)

Graph 6: Ten Top ETF Promoters by Assets Under Management, November 30, 2018 (Euro Millions)

Source: Lipper

The ten top promoters accounted for 92.95% of the overall assets under management in the European ETF industry. This meant, in turn, the other 44 fund promoters registering at least one ETF for sale in Europe accounted for only 7.05% of the overall assets under management.

Fund Flows by Promoters

Since the European ETF market is highly concentrated, it was surprising that only four of the ten largest promoters by assets under management were among the ten top selling ETF promoters for November. iShares was the best selling ETF promoter in Europe for November (+€4.8 bn), well ahead of Lyxor ETF (+€1.1 bn) and Xtrackers (+€1.1 bn).

Graph 7: Ten Best Selling ETF Promoters, November 2018 (Euro Millions)

Source:  Lipper

Since the flows of the ten top promoters accounted for 217.14% of the overall estimated net flows into ETFs in Europe for November, it was clear that some of the 50 promoters (19) faced net outflows (-€4.7 bn in total) over the course of November.

Assets Under Management by Funds

There were 2,692 instruments (primary funds and convenience share classes) listed as ETFs in the Lipper database at the end of November. With regard to the overall market pattern, it was not surprising the assets under management at the ETF level were also highly concentrated. Only 148 of the 2,692 instruments held assets above €1.0 bn each. These products accounted for €396.8 bn, or 59.53%, of the overall assets in the European ETF industry. The ten largest ETFs in Europe accounted for €112.9 bn, or 16.94%, of the overall assets under management. (Please read our study: Is the European ETF industry dominated by only a few funds? to learn more about the concentration at the single-fund level in the European ETF industry.)

Graph 8: Ten Largest ETFs by Assets Under Management, November 30, 2018 (Euro Millions)

Source: Lipper 

ETF Flows by Funds

A total of 761 of the 2,692 instruments analyzed in this report showed net inflows of more than €10,000 each for November, accounting for €20.1 bn, or 512.13% of the overall net flows. This meant the other 1,931 instruments faced no flows or net outflows for the month. In more detail, only 46 of the 761 ETFs posting net inflows enjoyed inflows of more than €100 m each during November, summing to €11.0 bn. The best selling ETF for November, iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (Acc), accounted for net inflows of €1.0 bn, or 25.27%, of the overall net inflows. It was followed by iShares Core MSCI EM IMI UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (+€0.5 bn) and UBS ETF MSCI Canada UCITS ETF (CAD) Adis (+€0.4 bn).

Graph 9: Ten Best Selling ETFs, November 2018 (Euro Millions)

Source: Lipper

The flow pattern at the fund level indicated that there was a lot of turnover and rotation during November, but it also showed the concentration of the European ETF industry even better than the statistics at the promoter or classification level. Given its size, it was not surprising that five of the ten best selling funds for November were promoted by iShares. These accounted for total net inflows of €2.6 bn, or 65.71%, of the net inflows into the European ETF segment.