Tensions between Niger and France have increased further, with Niger revoking the French state-owned nuclear power producer Orano’s mining license for the Imouraren mine in June. Niger, one of the world’s largest producers of uranium and a key uranium supplier to France, based the decision on long production delays: work at the mine was originally scheduled to start in 2015, however development halted in the wake of the slump in global uranium prices following the nuclear accident at Fukushima, Japan in 2011. Refresh this chart in your browser | Edit the chart in Datastream Niger-French relations have deteriorated since last year’s military

Africa is often referred to in the context of the ‘great power’ rivalry between the US and China. The geopolitical importance of the continent means that it is considered as ‘in play’, but there is a lack of solid empirical analysis on Africa and on other countries’ engagement in the continent. Part of the reason for this is the streetlight effect, or drunkard’s search principle. This is the idea that analysts look where it is easiest — where the light is — ignoring less examined and harder-to-measure dimensions. With eleven languages spoken in South Africa alone, unpicking goings-on the continent

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns over the likelihood of financial crises breaking out across emerging markets are returning once more. Fathom’s Financial Vulnerability Indicator (FVI), a comprehensive model assessing the likelihood of banking, currency, and sovereign crises occurring, is currently flashing red in both South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. This piece outlines a brief history of African banking crises and outlines the forces driving the current uptick in banking risk. Refresh this chart in your browser | Edit the chart in Datastream Laeven and Valencia (2020)[1] have catalogued the incidence of three types of financial crises (currency, sovereign and banking) for 165

Datastream is in the process of ramping up its data coverage of the African continent. Once finished, the new dataset will comprise 500,000 nationally sourced time series covering 54 African nations. Fathom Consulting, meanwhile, has been increasing its analytical focus on the continent, and looks forward to making use of this expanded dataset in its analysis. One area of particular focus for Fathom has been China’s emerging role on the continent. China’s integration into the global trade and financial system has accelerated since the country’s admission into the World Trade Organization in 2001, as highlighted by the charts below. Refresh

Since its admission to the World Trade Organization in 2001, China’s position in the global economy has changed dramatically. It has become the largest trading partner with many countries globally, and countries in Africa are no exception. Refinitiv is in the process of expanding its data coverage of the African continent and today’s Chart of the Week highlights data which show how sharply imports from China have increased in Africa’s largest countries. China is also the largest export destination for many African countries, especially those countries whose economies are focused on commodities. In addition, China is the largest creditor for

Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa fell below zero for the first time in more than a quarter of a century in 2020. Official COVID-19 case and mortality figures have been relatively low in Africa. However, even with less severe health outcomes and looser restrictions on economic activity, many countries on the continent have suffered from weak international demand and its consequent impact on commodities prices, while tourist-reliant economies have also fared poorly. Meanwhile, reduced fiscal space has meant that governments have been unable to support households and businesses as much as in the advanced economies. As a result, there is

Managed commodity currencies will face dual headwinds from a sustained period of low oil prices and a rising US dollar. But those countries that have floating exchange rates and have already adjusted should prove more resilient, including Egypt and South Africa. Several countries in Africa have issued hard currency government bonds in recent years, and Nigeria’s US dollar-denominated debt in particular looks attractive. Overall, we expect GDP growth to accelerate across the continent as the shock from weak commodities prices unwinds and China ‘doubles down’. Refresh the chart in your browser | Edit chart in Datastream In the current environment,

Despite a strong Q2, South Africa’s economic outlook remains bleak South African GDP expanded at an annualised rate of 3.3% in Q2, aided by a rebound in mining. But the country’s economic outlook remains bleak. China’s decision to ‘double down’ on its investment-led growth model has provided South Africa some breathing space, but headwinds, including persistently high unemployment, remain. Political developments are an additional woe, and have been the focus of recent investor concern. Looking ahead, the economy’s structural weaknesses, exemplified by poor labour market dynamics, are likely to impair its growth performance. Data revealed that South Africa’s (SA’s) GDP

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has accelerated since the turn of the century, but it weakened markedly last year, with a further slowing expected in 2016. Oil exporters have been negatively affected by the downturn in crude prices, but net oil importers, with strong and stable policymaking, stand to benefit. Refresh the chart in your browser | Edit chart in Datastream Derided as ‘the hopeless continent’ in an infamous Economist cover at the turn of the century, Africa has since enjoyed a period of robust growth. In the decade to 2010, average GDP growth was 6.0% – more than double