The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q4 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 13.0% growth over last year’s levels. Our metrics show that six of 10 consumer-related industries have turned negative. (Exhibit 1) Of the 195 retailers tracked by LSEG, the Broadline Retail sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the fourth quarter, recording a 71.0% surge over last year’s level. The second-strongest sector is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure with a 6.2% growth estimate. Consumer Confidence improved towards the end of the fourth quarter,

The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q3 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 2.1% growth over last year’s levels. Our metrics show that seven of 10 consumer-related industries have turned negative. (Exhibit 1) Of the 193 retailers tracked by LSEG, the broadline retail sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the third quarter, recording a 19.4% surge over last year’s level. The second strongest sector is the household products with a 6.5% growth estimate. Consumer Confidence remained volatile in the third quarter. In the

Amazon Prime Week is back again, and every year retailers ride the coattails of Prime Week with their own sales.  Inflation is still affecting retailers — during the last earnings season, 73% mentioned inflation during their earnings calls. Most retailers also agree that consumers are waiting for promotional events in order to shop, as they are cautious and are trading down. Therefore, during this Prime Week, it is very likely that retailers are betting that heavy promotions will entice shoppers to open up their wallets, especially since consumers have become value oriented. Amazon will offer its deals primarily online and

The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q4 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 33.7% growth over last year’s levels. However, much of this growth is coming from just two categories and our metrics show that six of 10 consumer-related industries have turned negative (Exhibit 1). Of the 204 retailers tracked by LSEG, the Broadline Retail sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the fourth quarter, recording a 753.3% surge over last year’s level. The second strongest sector is the Restaurants & Leisure group with

As 2023 comes to an end, the U.S. consumer has remained resilient in the face of macroeconomic challenges.  Higher inflation caused the consumer to think twice and become pickier about spending. Moreover, after two years of being cooped up at home, consumers’ behavior changed as they gravitated towards services vs. goods. LSEG 2024 retail outlook The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant index is expected to show a 4.1% revenue growth over last year’s levels. However, the estimated earnings growth rate is expected to grow 26.1%, due to lower cost pressures from a year ago (Exhibit 1). When looking at the

Historically, Cyber Monday falls on the Monday after the Black Friday weekend. Cyber Monday discounts tend to be an extension of Black Friday deals for shoppers returning to the office after a holiday weekend, eyeing merchandise online. Like Black Friday this year, Cyber Monday deals are starting earlier in the hopes that shoppers will respond over the weekend. This comes at the heels of third-quarter earnings releases where retailers are providing cautious guidance and are warning of a price-sensitive consumer. So, will the promotions be enough to entice shoppers to open their wallets? LSEG holiday sales forecast Spending for the

Amazon is back with its second Prime event this year, and retailers are ready to ride the coattails of Prime Day, part 2, with their own sales again. The first event last July offered steep promotions to lure shoppers, which helped July U.S. retail sales post one of the strongest showings this year. In the current environment, consumers remain cautious and are trading down. As a result, retailers are betting that heavy promotions will entice shoppers to open up their wallets, especially since consumers have become value-oriented. E-commerce growth comparison Amazon’s second Prime Day takes place on October 10-11, the

To date, 152 of the 199 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2023, representing 76% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 79% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 5% delivered on-target results and 16% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 19.2%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 199 companies in this index is 3.2% for Q2 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 63% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

It’s Amazon Prime Week, and every year retailers ride the coattails of Prime Week with their own sales. During the last earnings season, most retailers agreed that consumers are cautious and are trading down. Therefore, this Prime Week, retailers are betting that heavy promotions will entice shoppers to open up their wallets, especially since consumers have become value oriented. There is no doubt consumers will be doing online price comparison this week and other retailers are hoping to capitalize on this phenomenon by offering steep discounts. Rising online discounts Amazon will offer these deals primarily online and only to its

Eighty percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q2 2021 EPS. Of the 164 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 85% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 3% matched and 12% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q2 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 153.9%. The Q2 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 24.3%. Eighty-four percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 16% reported revenue below analyst expectations. Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv Q2 2021 retail earnings This earning week, retailers told us that they are well-stocked for

Today, the Wall Street Journal announced that Amazon plans to open “Large Retail Locations Akin to Department Stores” (Source: WSJ, Aug. 19, 2021). This news comes at the heels of the latest e-commerce report from the Census Bureau posting record sales of $225 billion in the second quarter of 2021. This represents a  9.1% growth from a year-ago – which is a deceleration from the 30%+ growth we’ve been seeing over the past year (Exhibit 1). The 9.1% e-commerce growth is also the smallest growth seen in over a decade. Still, the Refinitiv IFR data suggest that the amount of

Due to COVID-19, Amazon Prime Day is arriving later in the year, Oct. 13-14. The pandemic has substantially accelerated the pace and shift to online shopping. In its latest earnings call, Amazon said “We’ve accelerated the number of — the growth of Prime members, both in the U.S. and internationally. So that’s a good sign that we’re happy about. And we hope that that has long-term ramifications” (Source: Amazon Q2 2020 Earnings Call). Amazon gained a significant amount of new Prime members, and enough time to analyze the data to discover which types of promotions will entice shoppers to open