ESG is on the upswing like no other investment trend. In the first half of 2021, of 80 ETF and mutual fund launches in the UK, 37 were ESG vehicles. Of these, 19 were equity funds, 16 mixed assets, and one each for bond and alternatives (chart 1). Bonds showed rather better last year, with 12 launches, but whatever the year, equity launches dominate.   Chart 1: ESG Fund Launches by Asset Class and Provider, 2021, Year to Date Source: Refinitiv Lipper   This compares to 207 launches in 2020, of which 59 where ESG, up from just 17 ESG

For the first edition of 2018 we will look at how we expect the key themes of last year to play out in 2018. Probably the most critical issue is if and when inflation will emerge and what this means for the stock and bond markets. The second is whether crude oil prices will finally break out of the five-year old range. Finally, will 2018 be a positive year for the dollar? A Watched Pot Never Seems to Boil The tax package enacted in December has arguably made the market see inflation as a serious risk for the first time

As 2017 draws to a close (this will be the last Market Insight of the year so Happy Holidays everyone!) it is fair to say that the past 12 months weren’t especially kind to the bears. Global equities, despite looking expensive on standard valuation metrics, generated double digit gains in developed markets (EAFE Index +19%) while emerging market equities recorded even stronger gains (EEM Index +27%). Adding to the misery for the bears, the sell-off in bonds witnessed in the final weeks of 2016 failed to evolve into the multi-decade trend reversal many investors anticipated it would[1]. Thankfully, we were

On 31 October we presented an overview of our Global Economic and Markets Outlook for 2017 Q4 at an event hosted by Thomson Reuters in London. We were joined by former Bank of England policymakers Charles Goodhart and Rachel Lomax. Fathom Director Erik Britton opened proceedings by setting out what we see as the most likely outcome for the global economy, distinguishing our relatively positive near-term outlook from our more muted medium- to long-term growth story. Refresh the chart in your browser | Edit chart in Datastream As we explained in more detail at Tuesday’s event and to clients in a series

We have consistently argued that, by giving unprofitable firms a prolonged lifeline, ultra-loose monetary policy has contributed to weaker productivity growth in recent years. New research from the BIS and OECD supports this view; both organisations have found that the share of firms that are unprofitable, or ‘zombies’, has been rising rapidly across advanced economies. The OECD has said that low interest rates may be one of the causes. But what exactly is a zombie? We answer that question in this note. We have also looked at the earnings of more than 10,000 US-listed companies and, using our own zombie

Until now we have taken a favourable view of Donald Trump’s ability to reflate the US economy, putting it on a higher growth path, somewhere close to the ‘old normal’. But, in light of the President’s failure to make any tangible progress in implementing the pro-business aspects of his agenda five months into his presidency, along with a series of ongoing controversies which are eroding his political capital and hindering his ability to get things done, we are reassessing the US economic outlook and trimming our US GDP growth and inflation forecasts. We will provide final numbers in our upcoming

The US unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% in May, a level not seen since the height of the dot-com bubble almost twenty years ago. Conventional economic thought, characterized by the “Philips Curve”, posits a fundamental trade-off between unemployment and inflation. Low unemployment should put upward pressure on wages and production costs leading to higher inflation. It is tempting to say “this time is different” and the market seems to be drifting into this mode. As shown below, CPI inflation has trended higher since 2015 and began 2017 at a 5-year high. Inflation has since moderated – largely reflecting softer oil

Since January the price of Bitcoin has surged more than 90%, taking it over the symbolically but not economically meaningful USD2,000 mark (at the time of writing it stands at USD2,400). As so often happens when Bitcoin’s price breaks through a big round number, and especially when it coincides with a rapid acceleration in price momentum, it provokes a slew of media coverage decrying it as an intrinsically worthless[1] financial instrument more akin to a Ponzi, or pyramid, scheme. The near parabolic rise in Bitcoin’s price recently – see exhibit below – certainly does appear consistent with bubble dynamics. Exhibit 1:

Stock markets have tumbled amid speculation President Trump may be impeached. Is this the start of the great bear market many investors anticipate or something less concerning? Warren Buffet has a problem, one that not many of us, either as individuals or companies are likely to experience or even view as a problem. He has too much money. According to the latest filings, Berkshire Hathaway has just under USD 100bn in cash sat on its balance sheet (a record high), money that Buffet clearly feels under pressure to deploy as evidenced by the following comment he made at the recent

Please note this article was written prior to the US-led airstrikes against Syria.  It has been a strong start to the year for developing market equities. Robust capital inflows in the first quarter helped propel the MSCI EM index higher by 11+% – approximately double the return seen in developed markets over the same time frame [1]. It is not just the numbers that makes this an impressive performance. It has occurred at a time when the Fed upped the pace of monetary policy accommodation withdrawal from one 25bp hike per year to one 25bp hike per quarter [2]. As demonstrated

Think about what a house means to most people. In addition to being a place to live, it also represents the single largest investment one is ever likely to make over a lifetime, typically purchased via a mortgage (ie. leveraged). It is also relatively illiquid, certainly in comparison with other asset classes that households typically use as a store of wealth (cash, equities, bonds etc). Moreover, it is not just bricks and mortar, people have strong emotional ties with their homes because their housing choice not only reflects their current social standing but also dreams and aspirations for the future.