Fathom has been warning for years that things have gone badly wrong in China’s real estate market, a fact which is now becoming widely appreciated as some of China’s biggest property developers default on their debts. The country is in the grip of a house price bubble which has put home ownership out of the reach of many ordinary people, while at the same time suffering from a monumental over-supply of partially completed and unoccupied housing stock which is being held back from the market. With strong vested interests on both sides, policymakers walk an increasingly narrow path to prevent

China has a housing problem. In some urban areas, house price to household income ratios are now as high as 18:1. In contrast, the house price-to-income ratio across the US is around 3:1. The answer to China’s housing problem should be simple (build more houses) — and yet it is not. Bizarrely, while there are plenty of construction projects in China, not enough of them are being completed. Indeed, Fathom estimates that the stock of housing currently under construction or paused (including those demolished) would ensure sufficient accommodation to house more than 200 million people. This is roughly equivalent to