Retail sales growth in March largely fulfilled expectations. Headline sales rose 1.4% month-over-month (vs. consensus +1.3%), while sales excluding autos were up 0.5% (vs. +0.3%). The control group, which feeds into GDP calculations, increased 0.4% (vs. +0.6%). (Source: LSEG IFR). While Q1 began on a weak note, the last two months have seen a sharp pickup, likely driven by a wave of pre-tariff buying. Consumers appeared to front-load purchases in the window between major tariff announcements and actual price hikes, a trend that likely extended into early April. Absent the tariff effect, it’s difficult to reconcile the strength in spending

WASHINGTON, DC – The LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index for April 2025 is at 52.8. Fielded from March 21 – March 26, 2025*, the Index is down 1.2 points from last month. *This month’s fieldwork was completed prior to the major tariff announcement on April 2, 2025, and the rescinding of many of those tariffs announced on April 9, 2025. The index has declined 2.5 points since February, continuing what has been an uneven start to 2025. It now sits about half a point lower than its reading from this time last year. Upload the full report here.

WASHINGTON, DC – The LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index for March 2025 is at 54.0. Fielded from February 21 – March 7, 2025*, the Index is down 1.3 points from last month. *The majority of this month’s fieldwork was completed prior to this month’s stock market decline. The index declined this month and has now alternated gains and losses the past four months. It sits about one point higher than its reading from this time last year. Upload the full report here.

WASHINGTON, DC – The LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index for February 2025 is at 55.3. Fielded from January 24 – February 7, 2025, the Index is up 0.9 point from last month. The index is up slightly after a sharp decline to begin 2025. It now sits more than three points higher than its reading from this time last year. Upload the full report here.

The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q4 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 13.0% growth over last year’s levels. Our metrics show that six of 10 consumer-related industries have turned negative. (Exhibit 1) Of the 195 retailers tracked by LSEG, the Broadline Retail sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the fourth quarter, recording a 71.0% surge over last year’s level. The second-strongest sector is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure with a 6.2% growth estimate. Consumer Confidence improved towards the end of the fourth quarter,

WASHINGTON, DC – The LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index for January 2025 is at 54.4. Fielded from December 20, 2024 – January 3, 2025*, the Index is down 3.2 points from last month. * The majority of this month’s fieldwork was completed prior to Congress passing a spending bill that avoided a government shutdown. The index is down significantly after reaching its highest point since October 2021 last month. However, it is still more than a point higher than its reading from this time last year. Upload the full report here.

WASHINGTON, DC – The LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index for December 2024 is at 57.6. Fielded from November 22 – December 6, 2024, the Index is up 1.9 points from last month. The index is up after showing stability last month, and it now sits at its highest point since October 2021. It is now more than six points higher than its reading from this time last year, and it is nearly five points above its reading to begin 2024. Upload the full report here.

WASHINGTON, DC – The LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index for November 2024 is at 55.7. Fielded from October 25 – October 31, 2024*, the Index is up 0.1 point from last month. *All fieldwork was completed prior to Election Day. The index shows stability after last month’s slight increase. It continues to sit more than three points higher than its reading from this time last year, and it is nearly three points above its reading to begin 2024. Upload the full report here.

WASHINGTON, DC – The LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index for October 2024 is at 55.6. Fielded from September 20 – October 4, 2024, the Index is up 0.6 point from last month. The index has increased slightly after showing stability last month. It is now more than three points higher than its reading from this time last year, and nearly three points above its reading to begin 2024. Upload the full report here. 

WASHINGTON, DC – The LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index for September 2024 is at 55.0. Fielded from August 23 – September 6, 2024, the Index is down 0.3 point from last month. The index is stable following last month’s slight decline. It continues to sit three points higher than its reading from this time last year and about two points above its reading to begin 2024. Upload the full report here.

WASHINGTON, DC – The LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index for August 2024 is at 55.3. Fielded from July 26 – August 9, 2024, the Index is down 0.7 point from last month. The index declined slightly after reaching its highest point of 2024 last month. However, it is still three points higher than its reading from this time last year and remains more than two points above its reading to begin 2024. Upload the full report here.

To date, 145 of the 199 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2024, representing 73% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 71% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 25% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 12.9%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 199 companies in this index is 3.5% for Q2 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 49% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and