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S&P 500 Earnings Dashboard 24Q4 | February. 21, 2025 Click here to view the full report. Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source "LSEG I/B/E/S".   S&P 500 Aggregate ... Find Out More
Weekly Aggregates Report | February. 21, 2025 To download the full Weekly Aggregates report click here. Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source "LSEG I/B/E/S". The Weekly ... Find Out More
This Week in Earnings 24Q4 | February. 21, 2025 To download the full This Week in Earnings report click here. Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source "LSEG ... Find Out More
News in Charts: Challenges and opportunities for Germany’s next Chancellor Germany’s snap election on Sunday, 23 February, has come against a backdrop of economic malaise in Europe’s largest economy. Patience with the ... Find Out More
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News in Charts: Challenges and opportunities for Germany’s next Chancellor

Germany’s snap election on Sunday, 23 February, has come against a backdrop of economic malaise in Europe’s largest economy. Patience with the incumbent Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, of the Social Democratic Party, had grown thin after two consecutive years of negative GDP growth. Mr Scholz said his hands had been tied by the German ‘debt brake’, a rule inserted into the German constitution by Angela Merkel in 2009 which limits the annual deficit of the federal government to 0.35% of GDP. But Mr Scholz’s political rival Friedrich Merz, the leader of Mrs Merkel’s former party the Christian Democratic Union and Christian
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Charts & TablesNews in Charts
Feb 21, 2025
posted by Fathom Consulting

Chart of the Week: Europe’s defence problem

Defence was the main item on the news wires last week, with a blizzard of US initiatives: President Trump proposed Ukraine peace talks, reiterated demands for increased European military spending, and expressed hopes for a coordinated reduction in US, Russian and Chinese military spending further down the line. These announcements from the US appear to have caught the EU off-guard, and an emergency summit has been called by France to coordinate a response. Many European countries spend less than NATO’s 2% target. None spends more than Russia, with an outlay of $100 billion in 2023 (some estimates suggest that this
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Chart of the WeekCharts & Tables
Feb 18, 2025
posted by Fathom Consulting

News in Charts: China’s housing market woes

An ageing population, declining bang-for-investment-buck and a US determined to stymie China’s rise has Asia’s greatest powerhouse facing what looks to be a long decline. Since the global financial crisis, real estate construction and investment has been the Chinese government’s favoured economic fallback. This has allowed them to paper over cracks in local government finances, keeping employment high, albeit unproductive, and therefore limiting the risk of social unrest while supporting economic activity. Refresh this chart in your browser | Edit the chart in Datastream However, with investment having far outpaced demand, this has led to a buildup of massive imbalances in the
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Charts & TablesNews in Charts
Feb 14, 2025
posted by Fathom Consulting

Chart of the Week: Uncertainty about US foreign aid policy

Amidst the barrage of new policies announced in President Trump’s second week in office was the decision to suspend foreign aid payments pending a 90-day review, and place the majority of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)’s 10,000 strong workforce on leave. A federal court has since issued a ruling intended to block the latter measure, but the future of USAID remains uncertain. The US’s share of global foreign aid flows, as tracked by the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC), has come down since the USAID’s inception in 1961, but the US still stood for around 30% of
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Chart of the WeekCharts & Tables
Feb 10, 2025
posted by Fathom Consulting

News in Charts: What determines trade?

Economists will often borrow theories and techniques, devised by other disciplines, to better advance their understanding of the world. One clear example of this is the so-called ‘gravity model of trade’. As physicists will tell you, Newton’s law of universal gravitation states that the gravitational pull exerted between two objects is proportional to the mass of each object, and it is inversely proportional to the distance between them. In turns out that something similar is true regarding the flow of global trade — the larger two economies are, and the shorter the distance between them, the more they tend to
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Charts & TablesNews in Charts
Feb 7, 2025
posted by Fathom Consulting

Chart of the Week: Sharp fall in UK employment after Budget tax changes

The ONS’s estimate of the number of payrolled employees in the UK fell by 47,000 in December, following a smaller decline in November. On the face of it, the sharp drop in payrolled employment was troubling. Adjusting for relative population sizes, it is equivalent to a fall of more than 200,000 in US non-farm payrolls, which is the kind of fall one might expect to see in the first month of an NBER recession. In the wake of October’s Budget, we revised down our forecast for near-term growth, to include a period of stagnation through 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q1.
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Chart of the WeekCharts & Tables
Feb 4, 2025
posted by Fathom Consulting

News in Charts: Trudeau’s successor’s inheritance

Similar to events in France and Germany, Canada also faces political upheaval, and reached a tipping point with the resignation of finance and deputy prime minister, Chrystia Freeland, on 16 December 2024. Shortly after, on 6 January 2025, Prime Minister of Canada for over nine years, Mr Trudeau, announced his intention to resign as Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader. He also announced the suspension of parliament until March, while the Liberal Party decides on its next leader. The next Canadian federal election is due by 20 October 2025 and will probably occur earlier as a vote of no confidence
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Charts & TablesNews in Charts
Feb 3, 2025
posted by Fathom Consulting

Chart of the Week: President Trump’s evolving tariff threat

Markets in countries at risk of US tariffs may have been pricing in risks for some time — equities in China, Mexico and Canada have all underperformed MSCI World since before the election. However, the performance of these countries’ equities last week suggests that investors are starting to become a little less worried. US president Donald Trump last week said he might impose a 10% tariff on China, starting in February — much less than the 60% Mr Trump threatened during his election campaign. At the same time the US president also said he was minded to impose a 25%
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Chart of the WeekCharts & Tables
Jan 28, 2025
posted by Fathom Consulting

News in Charts: Trump 2.0 — once more, with feeling

Donald Trump was inaugurated this week, being officially given the keys to the White House for a second time. So far, there is little sign that distinguishing between posture and policy will be any easier this time around. Nonetheless, the first few days of his administration have provided some additional clarity. Most notably, perhaps, was a more dovish approach to tariffs. Meanwhile, the prominent role of Big Tech CEOs at the inauguration highlighted the likely importance his administration will place on AI, specifically, and economic growth, more broadly. The bigger picture is that the probable outcome of Trump 2.0 remains
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Charts & TablesNews in Charts
Jan 24, 2025
posted by Fathom Consulting

Chart of the Week: The allure of the US Treasury bond

U.S. Treasury bonds are considered safe, convenient, and easy to trade, making them the preferred choice over other low-risk investments. Their yield is relatively low but this ‘convenience yield’ reflects the implicit premium that investors are willing to pay to hold Treasuries, compared to less liquid assets like AAA corporate bonds. This yield typically peaks during recessions or indeed before (such as before the 2001 dot-com crash). In recent years, the rotations of the convenience yield and of the equity market have continued to respond to the same underlying economics The key driver behind this is whether investors expect earnings
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Chart of the WeekCharts & Tables
Jan 20, 2025
posted by Fathom Consulting

News in Charts: UK’s monetary dilemma

In the UK, the Bank of England’s (BoE) stance on monetary policy and the future path for interest rates have been hot topics since the beginning of the year, and for good reason. Opposing forces, of both stagnating economic growth and stubborn inflation, are expected to have an impact on UK interest rate decisions in 2025. However, on the whole, Fathom does not expect interest rates to reduce much, with just one cut forecast over the course of 2025. Refresh this chart in your browser | Edit the chart in Datastream Stagnating economic growth has been a recurrent issue for the UK
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Charts & TablesNews in Charts
Jan 17, 2025
posted by Fathom Consulting

Chart of the Week: UK February rate cut may be last this year

Refresh this chart in your browser | Edit the chart in Datastream UK bond yields are rising, causing pain for borrowers, including the Treasury and UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves. This rise limits the UK’s fiscal space, while curtailing economic growth. Without the latter, the former gets even tighter. Breaking this cycle is going to be a huge challenge for the UK government and Chancellor. Bond yields are rising for a variety of reasons including international factors, and in particular a recalibration of investors’ expectations about the pace and magnitude of policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve. But inflation in the UK
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Chart of the WeekCharts & Tables
Jan 13, 2025
posted by Fathom Consulting
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