*This article originally  published prior to the March Ist  announcement on tariffs by US President Trump One of the numerous criticisms directed towards President Trump is that he tends to view everything as a zero-sum game. Almost certainly informed by his years as a corporate deal-maker, every gain made comes at someone else’s expense. Such thinking seems to be behind the administration’s recent greenlighting of tariffs on US steel and aluminium imports. The recently issued reports[1] by Commerce Secretary Ross cited “national security concerns” for supporting the imposition of tariffs. However, Trump’s comments that he expects the measures to “create a lot

The Senate managed to pass a tax plan on Friday night and the reconciliation needed with the House version passed earlier in November will likely be finished in the next few weeks so a final version should be ready for Trump’s signature well before year end. This is an extremely complex piece of legislation so even after reconciliation it will be months if not years before its implications – and unintended consequences – are fully evident. But most main themes of the package should remain so we think it worthwhile to consider what the likely impact of the legislations bodes

A decline in the ratio of world trade over world GDP, alongside the electoral success of isolationist politics in 2016, spurred talk about the ‘end of globalisation’.  However, aided by a rebound in emerging markets (EMs), world trade growth has actually picked up in 2017. The weakness in EM trade since 2013 has partly reflected soft economic activity among commodity exporters. We think that cycle is now turning.  With little desire in emerging markets for increased protectionism, and supportive demand from China, EMs will provide a tailwind to world trade this year and next. In the near term, there are

Britain’s messy politics is making it harder for Bank of England Governor Mark Carney to ignore a jump in inflation. The spike in prices is probably temporary and wages remain subdued. But the country’s fragile government will add to bond investors’ nerves. Carney and his fellow rate-setters are keeping UK policy rates at a record low of 0.25 percent even though prices rose 2.9 percent in May – the highest level in nearly four years and almost a full percentage point above the central bank’s target. That makes sense. While sterling’s weakness after last year’s EU referendum has made imported