LSEG IFR Markets forecasts a challenging development for Q2 U.S. retail sales, with overall and ex-autos sales anticipated to increase by only 0.2% in May 2024. The control group is expected to fare slightly better with a 0.4% rise, though this still reflects a sluggish start to the quarter following April’s 0.3% decline. Unit auto sales experienced modest growth for the month, reaching an annualized rate of 15.90 million, marking the fastest pace this year. Meanwhile, gas prices have moderated after a period of rapid increases. However, the downturn in home sales since the beginning of the year suggests limited

To date, 191 of the 201 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2024, representing 95% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 73% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and 26% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 22.6%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 201 companies in this index is 4.0% for Q1 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 53% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 151 of the 201 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2024, representing 75% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 74% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and 25% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 21.7%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 201 companies in this index is 4.0% for Q1 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 53% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 195 of the 200 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2023, representing 98% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 78% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 5% delivered on-target results and 17% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 20.3%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 200 companies in this index is 3.3% for Q2 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 63% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 147 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2023, representing 72% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 80% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and 19% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 32.3%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 4.4% for Q1 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 78% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 140 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2023, representing 67% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 79% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and 20% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 30.9%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 201 companies in this index is 4.3% for Q1 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 79% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 192 of the 201 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2022, representing 96% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 66% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 30% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2022 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at -21.5%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 192 companies that have reported is 5.8% for Q4 2022. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 65% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 159 of the 201 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2022, representing 79% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 65% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 3% delivered on-target results and 32% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2022 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at -22.0%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 201 companies in this index is 5.7% for Q4 2022. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 66% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 146 of the 201 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2022, representing 73% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 65% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 3% delivered on-target results and 32% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2022 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at -21.4%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 201 companies in this index is 5.8% for Q4 2022. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 66% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 182 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their earnings results for Q2 2022, representing 89% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 74% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 2% delivered on-target results and 24% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2022 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at -5.9%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 9.2% for Q2 2022. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 61% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’

What commodity volatilities mean for consumers Ninety-two percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q4 2021 EPS. Of the 186 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 74% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 3% matched and 24% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q4 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 48.4%. The Q4 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 13.5%. Seventy percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 30% reported revenue below analyst expectations. Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv  Rising commodity prices Since the pandemic, The Refinitiv /

Due to inflation, several retailers are already dealing with higher cost of goods and services (COGS) – and dealing with the supply chain crisis. They just finished reporting Q3 earnings; 141 retailers have already discussed inflation worries, and 192 have mentioned the supply issues during their earnings calls. Consumers’ short-term inflation expectations rose again, with the median cost of living increase for next year pushing up from 5.7% to 6.0%. This increase is twice the pace of expectations for income growth, which slid to 2.8% from 3.0%, according to the New York Federal Reserve. As a result, the latest Ipsos