Markets in countries at risk of US tariffs may have been pricing in risks for some time — equities in China, Mexico and Canada have all underperformed MSCI World since before the election. However, the performance of these countries’ equities last week suggests that investors are starting to become a little less worried. US president Donald Trump last week said he might impose a 10% tariff on China, starting in February — much less than the 60% Mr Trump threatened during his election campaign. At the same time the US president also said he was minded to impose a 25%

As part of his re-election campaign, Donald Trump proposed a 60 per cent tariff on all Chinese goods. Whether he implements it or not, the US President-elect’s threat may be intended to bring Beijing to the negotiating table. But even if he succeeds in striking an agreement, it seems less clear that such a deal will lead to an increase in US exports to China. A study from the Peterson institute on the ‘Phase One’ deal between the US and China, agreed at the end of Trump’s last term, shows that China has bought none of the extra $200 billion

US markets have reacted positively to Donald Trump’s re-election as US President, much as they did in 2016. Once again President-elect Trump ran his campaign on a ticket promoting an ‘America first’ agenda. Back in 2016, expectations around these policies – such as deregulation, a tougher stance on China and corporate tax cuts — led the S&P 500 to post significant gains in the first 100 days after the election. A similar pattern seems to be taking hold this time too. Refresh this chart in your browser | Edit the chart in Datastream Speculation about the prospect of looser financial regulation, a

Last week, Donald Trump announced via Twitter the restoration of tariffs on Brazilian and Argentinian steel and aluminium imports. The commodities were subject to one of his early rounds of blanket tariffs, but Brazil and Argentina received an exemption. Now that the two countries have been “presiding over a massive devaluation of their currencies”, they are being restored. However, there is little evidence that they have been actively devaluing. In August, the Argentinean peso depreciated by around 30% following a poor result in the primary presidential elections for the pro-business incumbent, Mauricio Macri. In Brazil, the central bank has been

Donald Trump has added new impetus to an old debate about corporate short-termism. The U.S. president took to Twitter on Friday to say that he has asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to study allowing public companies to report earnings every six months, rather than quarterly. BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink had already slammed the practice. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett earlier this year proposed doing away with quarterly guidance, but not quarterly reporting. And former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton derided “quarterly capitalism” in 2015; her solution focused on lowering the capital-gains tax the longer an investment was

America’s latest immigration push isn’t just cruel, it’s bad economics. Separating children from parents illegally entering the country is immoral – and expensive. Detention costs could hit up to $100 million for just one month, eating into a $3.2 billion deportation budget. And that’s before calculating the longer-term impact a reduction in immigration will have on the economy. President Donald Trump recently toughened his already hardline immigration approach because of a jump in illegal entrants. Most of them are fleeing violence in Central America. In March 2018, there was a 203 percent increase in illegal border crossing compared to the

New York may have recently placed second behind London in consultancy Z/Yen’s annual ranking of global financial centres, but Donald Trump could help it regain top spot. Comments on Nov. 10 from the property magnate’s new website, which will map out his transition to the presidency, reaffirmed his campaign-trail commitment to financial deregulation, including a refashioning of Dodd-Frank post-crisis banking reforms. True, it remains uncertain whether this is good for the largest banks. The president-elect thinks Dodd-Frank fails working people, by making big banks bigger and hindering smaller competitors. Trump sees the latter as key drivers of economic growth, while

Riding a wave of popular discontent against globalisation, immigration and the political and economic establishment seems to work. For the second time this year, investors were caught off-guard by an anti-establishment vote at the polls. But when the dust has settled, what will Donald Trump’s victory mean for the US, and for the global economy? Refresh the chart in your browser | Edit chart in Datastream During the long election campaign, Donald Trump made countless extreme and often contradictory promises. He undoubtedly poses a threat to the status quo. But he is unlikely to be the disaster for the US

Donald Trump may make European Central Bank President Mario Draghi great again. European bonds are tracking the rise in U.S. bond yields sparked by the U.S. president-elect’s spending plans. This helpfully expands the number of bonds Draghi can buy. Longer-term, U.S. protectionism could inflict deeper harm on the euro zone that would push rate-setters back into the limelight. Investors are pushing up U.S. bond yields because they expect Trump’s plans to cut taxes and spend more on investment will boost U.S. government borrowing, economic growth, and probably inflation. European bond yields are rising in sympathy, not least because higher inflation

Listen again to leading Reuters journalists discussing and analyzing the political and financial implications of the U.S. Presidential Election result. Reuters Editor-at-Large Axel Threlfall will lead an in-depth conversation with Reuters journalists to consider what the result will mean for the United States, foreign affairs and the world economy, as well as what’s next for Donald Trump, the President-elect. Listen and watch here

Donald Trump’s surprise election win should bring some welcome relief to banks. A Republican Party in control of Congress also usually appeals to financial markets. The president-elect’s erratic positions on other important issues, however, could turn those short-term gains into long-term pain. U.S. bank stocks rallied early on Wednesday after learning that Trump is set to become the country’s 45th president. As with Britain’s vote in June to leave the European Union, gyrations in government debt and currency markets could mean brisk business for traders of bonds, currencies and commodities. A commitment to spending on American roads and bridges, reinforced

Our most recent quarterly forecast, some of which was presented earlier this week at an event hosted by Thomson Reuters in London, included a risk scenario that we called ‘Donald Dark’. That scenario envisages growing isolationism, and a sharp drop in global trade, hastened by a protectionist Donald Trump presidency in the US. Emerging markets (EMs) have been the greatest beneficiaries of globalisation. They stand to lose the most if it goes into reverse. Refresh the chart in your browser | Edit chart in Datastream For almost 200 hundred years the fact that trade is beneficial has been a fundamental