Last Update: May 5, 2022 Click here to view the full report. Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv. S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions The 22Q1 Y/Y blended earnings growth estimate is 10.2%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 4.2%. Of the 413 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 22Q1 79.9% reported above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 66%. The 22Q1 Y/Y blended revenue growth estimate is 13.2%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth

Last Update: May 3, 2022 Download the full report here. STOXX 600: Q1 2022 Earnings Dashboard STOXX 600: Q1 2022 Earnings Growth Estimate Trend Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S data Find out more about our estimates with the deepest global views – Refinitiv I/B/E/S Estimates. European Aggregate Estimates and Revisions First quarter earnings are expected to increase 35.4% from Q1 2021. Excluding the Energy sector, earnings are expected to increase 14.9%. First quarter revenue is expected to increase 19.0% from Q1 2021. Excluding the Energy sector, revenues are expected to increase 10.2%. 131 companies in the STOXX 600 have reported earnings to

As we enter 22Q1 earnings season, the market will be adapting to ‘a new normal’ as we exit 2021 which saw STOXX 600 earnings growth increase by 76.6%, a record-year in large part to base effects. The current 22Q1 blended earnings growth rate of 25.1% confirms the beginning of a transition to more reasonable year-over-year (YoY) growth rates off the back of a historical 21Q1-21Q4 earnings season where YoY earnings growth was 96.4%, 152.6%, 60.5%, and 59.2% respectively.  The 10-year average earnings growth rate for the STOXX 600 is 7.2%. Exhibit 1: STOXX 600 YoY Growth Rates In a typical

The StarMine team has selected five European companies, using Eikon by Refinitiv, that we expect to miss FY21 earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data. Our European selections for FY20 were 80% accurate, which can be seen here. Our European picks for negative Predicted Surprises in FY21 are — Valeo SE (VLOF.PA), Weir Group PLC (WEIR.L), Fresnillo PLC (FRES.L), Alstom PA (ALSO.PA), and United Utilities Group PLC (UU.L). SmartEstimates® aim to provide earnings forecasts that are more accurate than I/B/E/S Consensus Estimates, by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of top-rated analysts. When SmartEstimates® diverge significantly from Consensus,

The StarMine team has selected five European companies, using Eikon by Refinitiv, that we expect to beat FY21 earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data. Our European selections for FY20 were 80% accurate, which can be seen here. Our European picks for positive Predicted Surprises in FY21 are — TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA), Glencore PLC (GLEN.L), Engie SA (ENGIE.PA), Kuehne und Nagel International AG (KNIN.S), and Pirelli & C SpA (PIRC.MI). SmartEstimates® aim to provide earnings forecasts that are more accurate than I/B/E/S Consensus Estimates, by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of top-rated analysts. When SmartEstimates® diverge significantly

As we enter 21Q4 earnings season, market participants and analysts are noting the blistering pace of earnings growth and the record percentage of companies beating analyst expectations. The key question is, can this momentum be maintained in the face of various headwinds? The current 21Q4 blended earnings growth rate of 48.5% confirms the beginning of a transition to more reasonable year-over-year (YoY) growth rates off the back of a historical 21Q1-21Q3 earnings season where YoY earnings growth was 96.4%, 152.6%, and 60.5% respectively. This is shown in Exhibit 1. Exhibit 1: STOXX 600 YoY Growth Rates In a typical quarter

In October 2021 we published our 21Q3 earnings surprise candidates based on StarMine predictive analytics. Using the Russell 1000 Index as our universe, our 21Q3 earnings surprise predictions scored 90% correct. The StarMine SmartEstimate®  is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our research has shown that when the SmartEstimate® differs significantly from the consensus (I/B/E/S Mean), the Predicted Surprise accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprises or further revisions 70% of the time. When significant Predicted Surprise for revenue is also present for the period, the accuracy improves to 78%.

In July 2021 we published our 21Q2 earnings surprise candidates based on StarMine predictive analytics. Using the FTSE Russell 1000 Index as our universe, our 21Q2 earnings surprise predictions scored 80% correct. The StarMine SmartEstimate®  is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our research has shown that when the SmartEstimate® differs significantly from the consensus (I/B/E/S Mean), the Predicted Surprise accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprises or further revisions 70% of the time. When significant Predicted Surprise for revenue is also present for the period, the accuracy improves

Approximately 90% of constituents have reported 21Q2 earnings and it has been another milestone quarter.  Blended earnings growth this quarter is currently 93.1%, the highest since 2009 Q4. Notably this quarter represents ‘easy year-over-year (YoY) comparisons’ given that the trough in earnings occurred in 20Q2.  However, even if we look at quarter-over-quarter growth (21Q2 vs. 21Q1), we see an earnings growth rate of 6.4%, which impressive given the high-watermark set last quarter with $413.1bn in aggregate earnings. We also continued to see a strong improvement in the earnings growth rate as the quarter progressed.  At the start of earnings season,

In 2021, we expect to see a year of high expectations for earnings growth as we exit 2020, which saw growth rates plummet during the first three quarters to levels not seen since the 2008 crisis. The earnings growth forecast for 2021 is currently 25.9%, the highest since 2010. In a typical quarter, year-over-year (YoY) growth expectations decline by an average of 3.5 percentage points (ppts) from the start of the quarter to the start of earnings season. Seeing an increase in growth expectations heading into earnings season is fairly uncommon, but we have seen exactly this behavior for the

The StarMine team has selected five North American companies, using Eikon Screener by Refinitiv, that we expect to miss 20Q4 earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data. Our North American selections for 2020 Q3 positive Predicted Surprises were 90% accurate, which can be viewed here. Historically (since 2011 Q4), our positive Predicted Surprise picks have demonstrated an accuracy rate of about 82.2%, giving investors an edge ahead of earnings announcements. Our North American picks for negative Predicted Surprises in 2020 Q4 are — Six Flags Entertainment Corp (SIX.N), Hyatt Hotels Corp (H.N), Guardant Health Inc (GH.O), Boeing Co (BA.N), and JD.Com Inc

Last Update: November 11, 2020 Click here to view the dashboard in detail. Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv Russell 2000 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions 20Q3 earnings are expected to decrease 14.4% from 19Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the expected growth rate for the index is -15.9%. Of the 1,517 constituents in the Russell 2000 that have reported earnings to date for 20Q3, 73.9% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. 20Q3 revenue is expected to decrease 5.3% from 19Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the expected growth rate for the index is -6.5%. 69.0% of