The new top cop at the U.S. Federal Reserve hardly fits the presidential mold. Michelle Bowman, Donald Trump’s pick to be the central bank’s vice chair of supervision, has indicated that she believes in aligning federal rules with Europe and the rest of the world. If so, it would mean largely conforming to Basel 3, the sort of international accord the White House is trashing most everywhere else. Bowman should be a welcome choice to the eight systemically important U.S. banks, which include Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon led the charge against her predecessor, Michael Barr, who initially proposed

The U.S. economy is still running too hot for comfort. Prices rose in January by 0.5% from the prior month, nudging the annual increase up to the psychologically testing 3% threshold. It’s another roadblock for further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. More importantly, it leaves even less room for President Donald Trump, whose tariff plans could stoke inflation further. Something must give – raising the specter of recession. Inflationary pressure is the result of a gaggle of disparate causes: egg prices were up 15% over the prior month; car insurance is nearly 12% more expensive than last year. Sure, prices for

U.S. government bond markets are feeling the squeeze from all sides. Yields on 10-year government debt have dropped in recent weeks amid signs of slowing growth and investors’ reflexive flight to safety following President Donald Trump’s tariff talk. But buyers should beware a false sense of security: blown-up deficits, a major trade war, and something going haywire in tech tycoon Elon Musk’s forceful takeover of U.S. government payment systems all introduce major and sometimes opposing risks, making the future direction of yields hard to predict. The only guarantee is volatility. In the month after Trump’s election victory in early November, yields

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces a central banker’s most difficult task: cooling out-of-control price rises without choking the labor market. Conventional wisdom holds that these goals are in irrevocable tension. But now, labor is doing its part to reconcile the two. A steady flow of new workers and an uptick in productivity mean still-high wage and job growth isn’t stoking inflation, as evident in figures released Thursday. With the Fed eyeing further rate cuts, the risk now is that an immigration-hostile administration or fading output gains topple the balance. The September consumer-price index report shows inflation falling to

Jerome Powell has given the next occupant of the White House an early boost. The Federal Reserve chair’s double-sized rate cut on Wednesday shows the central bank has shifted from battling rising prices to the second part of its dual mandate: the pursuit of full employment. The Fed’s actions come with a lag, meaning the expected increase in home sales, stock purchases, and capital investment will probably only kick in following November’s U.S. presidential election. But whoever wins has a better chance of inheriting a soft landing. The Fed’s long-term projections are the closest the central bank is likely to come to formally declaring victory.

If Dollar General is having a hard time, imagine how its customers must feel. Shares of the $20 billion low-cost U.S. retailer fell 25% on Thursday after it cut its sales forecasts and reported second quarter earnings that didn’t meet expectations. Chief Executive Todd Vasos painted a troubling picture of the low-income group that make up the lion’s share of the company’s shoppers, and a sizeable chunk of the U.S. population. It’s not that the company is having too hard a time attracting customers. Sales rose to $10 billion in the second quarter, 4% more than the same quarter last year. More

Stocks may have recovered from their big dip, but they’re still on a rollercoaster. Equities around the world had by Tuesday regained most of the losses they suffered the previous week, after a concatenation of economic and market events triggered a dramatic sell-off. Yet expectations of volatility are still higher than they were, which suggests more ructions lie ahead. Markets have mostly calmed down after the mini-crash that started when Japan raised interest rates and U.S. data showed unemployment at a near-three year high. The Bank of Japan has since vowed to tread more carefully, and the U.S. job market

Money can’t buy love, and when inflation soars it’s harder to purchase a lot of other important things, too. The frustration is more pronounced for poorer shoppers than richer ones. Even as some companies start slashing prices to bring back customers, a $5 value meal and discounted T-shirt will hardly be enough to make Americans feel much better about the economy. When The Beatles sang about the uselessness of currency when it comes to affairs of the heart, they started the refrain with “I don’t care too much for money.” It’s a sentiment that feels even quainter 60 years after

Having the last word doesn’t always ensure winning the fight. But on Wednesday, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will try to have the final say of the year in his ongoing tussle with the markets. The central bank is set to keep interest rates steady and Powell will attempt to persuade investors that aggressive rate cuts aren’t imminent despite falling inflation. If he is successful, stocks and bonds will have a tough holiday period. If he fails, the Fed’s plans for next year could be derailed. The market thinks the Fed will cut rates from the current 5.25% to

There’s a spanner in the freshly restarted U.S. manufacturing machine. A factory construction boom sparked by President Joe Biden’s industrial policies has led to unbridled optimism about the sector for the first time in decades. The hardest part of the process hangs in the balance, however: filling all the anticipated job openings. Biden has walked all his predecessor’s talk of a manufacturing revival. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal, the Inflation Reduction Act, with its tax credits for renewable energy projects, and the CHIPS and Science Act’s semiconductor subsidies have had the desired effect. Spending to build new plants surged to an

A flock of hawks flew over financial markets on Thursday. Central banks in the UK, Switzerland, Norway and Turkey all raised interest rates. Sticky inflation demands aggressive action. But as economies weaken, rate-setters may come under fire from politicians. Britain’s Andrew Bailey and Turkey’s Hafize Gaye Erkan look particularly vulnerable to political attacks. The four central banks face similar problems. Although annual inflation rates range from 2.2% in Switzerland to 39.6% in Turkey, the policymakers are all concerned about consumer prices remaining high for too long. Increasing interest rates is the only weapon they have to bring inflation back to

Americans’ struggle with rising prices is increasingly uneven. While inflation broadly eased in May, the costs of several services jumped again. That trend stands to continue, as the richest Americans have wages moving in the right direction. But that means persistent inflation will weigh more on those least equipped to bear it. Overall prices increased just 0.1% in May compared to the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. Yet several service industries got more expensive, hindering the inflation recovery. Hotel prices rose 2.1% in May, signaling a rebound in travel heading into the summer. Restaurant inflation accelerated to