The price of Bitcoin posted spectacular gains following the US election last year, with Donald Trump seen as a ‘pro-crypto’ president. The digital asset rose from $70,000 in early November to over $100,000 in December. However, its appeal as a store of value has declined somewhat amid a general sell-off in risky assets. One Bitcoin now trades at around $85,000. Meanwhile, gold has posted steady gains, rising to a record high of $3,230 last week. Since the election, returns for both the yellow metal and the most famous cryptocurrency are now closely matched, but gold’s much longer track record of

It has been a busy week for economists, especially for those engaged in financial markets. By our reckoning, the cumulative increase in the US effective tariff rate since inauguration day went from around 12 percentage points on Monday morning, to some 30 percentage points as US markets opened on Wednesday. It eased back to 28 percentage points before the end of the day, as blanket tariff increases above 10 percentage points on most countries were suspended, while the increase imposed on China was raised to 125 percentage points. On Thursday, that 125 percentage points turned into 145 percentage points and

The markets sell-off since President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements took hold in an environment where, as Fathom has previously suggested,[1] US stocks were supported more by sentiment than by fundamentals. Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio produces a valuation multiple by dividing the current price of the S&P by its inflation-adjusted average earnings over the past 10 years. It can provide clues as to whether the market is relatively over- or undervalued compared with historical earnings. The chart shows the CAPE ratio plotted against the five-year ahead returns of the S&P (annualised) from 1990 onwards. Both variables are on

A remarkable transformation has taken place in the global automotive export market in the past few years, with some of the biggest names in the industry left in the dust. China, a net importer of motor vehicles until 2018, whose automotive industry primarily existed to serve domestic markets, has accelerated its way into the forefront group of global exporters.  Refresh this chart in your browser | Edit the chart in Datastream China’s domestic production was already significant before that date — data from Wards Intelligence suggest that China has been the largest producer of vehicles since the Global Financial Crisis — but

Refresh this chart in your browser | Edit the chart in Datastream Europe’s sluggish economic performance relative to the US is sometimes blamed on its relatively expensive energy. That, in turn, is sometimes blamed on its efforts to decarbonise. But despite the growing share of renewables on Europe’s grid, it is gas prices that typically set the price of its electricity thanks to a marginal pricing system; and gas prices are about four times as high in Europe as they are in the US. There are several reasons for this. It is true that Europe has higher carbon taxes than the US,

As Spring 2025 unfolds, Europe finds itself at a potential turning point. Following prolonged stagnation and inflationary pressure, and amid a backdrop of escalating tariff tensions, a cautiously optimistic tone is beginning to emerge across macroeconomic indicators, financial markets and investor sentiment. This note brings together developments across key areas — economic data, inflation dynamics, market behaviour and geopolitical risk — to provide a coherent snapshot of Europe’s evolving outlook. Refresh this chart in your browser | Edit the chart in Datastream Euro area economies are gradually emerging from the stagnation that defined much of 2024. Recent improvements in industrial production and

One of the defining features of the past few years has been the continued rise of the US tech giants. In 2025, however, momentum in innovation appears to have started to shift towards the other side of the Pacific. Chinese technology firms, long viewed as playing catch-up, are now emerging as contenders in the global AI race. Leading this surge is DeepSeek, a Chinese startup that, on 24 January 2025, unveiled its R1 large-language model — reportedly developed at a fraction of the cost of similar models from US counterparts. Despite its modest budget, R1 is said to perform competitively,

Over the past decade the trend of hyper-globalisation, which has been one of the defining characteristics of economic growth, has started to wane. More recent changes to the global political climate have further threatened free trade, with the Trump administration is looking set to drive into place a slew of protectionist measures. In light of this backdrop, two other global economic powers, India and the European Union (EU), are increasingly keen to finalise a free-trade agreement (FTA) by the end of the year. It is clear to see why both parties are keen to engage in a free-trade agreement, with

The European cement sector has had a strong start to 2025 compared to its US equivalent. As the chart shows, European cement stocks have been outperforming the broader euro area market since January 2023; but this year’s growth has been particularly strong, with the Datastream euro area cement index climbing around 45% since January to reach a new all-time high on 14 March — while its US counterpart has only registered 3% growth in the same period. As a result, the total market value of the US cement index relative to the euro area cement index has shrunk, falling from

The list lengthens as President Trump reiterated his intent for India to join the likes of Canada and Mexico, with plans to raise US tariffs by 2 April. India has traditionally been more of a closed economy and maintained tariff rates above global norms, imposing a mean average 14.36% rate in 2022 — much higher than the average tariff imposed by the US of 2.7%. Mr Trump aims to address this imbalance. Refresh this chart in your browser | Edit the chart in Datastream India is forecast, by the IMF, to become the world’s third largest economy by 2028 (when measured at

Faced with uncertainty over the new administration’s tariff policy, US stock markets are weakening. As outlined in Fathom’s Global Outlook, Spring 2025, European economies could also be hit hard due to American tariffs. However, despite this lingering threat, mid-to-large cap German stocks have outperformed (as have small caps, albeit to a lesser extent). Most recently, discussions of loosening a long-held ‘debt brake’ to boost defence and infrastructure spending has further supported financial markets in Germany. Across the Atlantic, tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China have resulted in a sharp decline in US stocks, as threats of a trade war and

More than three years have passed since the outbreak of war between Ukraine and Russia. However, following the inauguration of Donald Trump in January, and subsequent dialogue between the United States and Russia, there has been talk of a potential peace settlement. But the recent meeting between Mr Trump and Ukrainian’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky did not go well, leading to uncertainty regarding the continuation of US military and financial support for Ukraine. Europe has stated its intention to step up its assistance in response, but what that may look like remains unclear. A peace deal still seems to be the