There is a pronounced risk of a global recession during the next two years. But, if it comes, will it be a ‘normal’, V-shaped recession or a more L-shaped financial crisis, replaying what happened in 2008/09? We answered this question in a recent In Depth note drawing on our consultancy expertise, in this case highlighting a major ongoing project estimating financial vulnerabilities across 177 countries, captured in our proprietary Financial Vulnerability Indicator (FVI). Despite high levels of debt, globally, we found that the risk of a US-led global financial crisis is much lower now than it was back in 2007

Last Friday, at our Monetary Policy Forum (MPF) event hosted in partnership with Refinitiv, we called for the advanced economies to shift decisively to a higher yield environment. Ten years before, in the throes of the most severe global financial crisis for 80 years, Fathom used our first MPF to argue strongly in favour of unconventional monetary policy, such as quantitative easing (QE). A decade on, in the final quarterly MPF, we called for these policies to be reversed in order to escape the low growth, low interest rate environment that the advanced economies remain stuck in. We were joined

The price of crude oil is volatile. Our first chart shows the price of a barrel of Brent crude since the early 1970s, adjusted for inflation. In real terms, oil prices, which had been broadly stable for more than a decade, rose by a factor of six between the late 1990s and the late 2000s, only to plummet as the global financial crisis hit, rebound as the recovery began, and fall sharply again through 2014 and 2015 as investors rightly became concerned by the pace of China’s slowdown. At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading around $75 a

The ten-year anniversary of the start of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has passed with less fanfare than one might expect. That is understandable; to this very day we are feeling the repercussions of that tumultuous event. For those of us caught up in that storm the anniversary evokes mainly unpleasant memories. Bond funds were hit hard in 2008… As we deal with ongoing central bank distortion and “lower for longer” interest rates, direct results of the GFC, it’s worth reflecting on the impact it had—and continues to have—on bond funds in the U.K. and Europe. To contextualise this, we

In August of 2007, BNP Paribas suspended three of its investment funds, an incident which at the time, only made news in a few local trade publications.  A subsequent run on Northern Rock and a £10 billion injection into money markets by the Bank of England in September 2007 signalled for many, the true reality of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the effects of which continue to this day. In this short Asset TV interview, Jake Moeller, Head of Lipper UK and Ireland Research at Refinitiv reflects on the event through the lens of historical fund flows and considers what,

Ten years ago last Wednesday marked the start for many observers of the global financial crisis – a series of rolling credit shocks and bank crashes that led to the deepest world recession for a generation and a decade of slow growth and painful repair. On Aug. 9, 2007, the European Central Bank flooded its money markets with billions of euros of emergency cash to prevent a seizure in the European banking system after France’s BNP Paribas became the latest to shut down investment funds hobbled by a collapse of U.S. mortgage and asset-backed bond markets. Serial bank collapses in