Historically, Cyber Monday falls on the Monday after the Black Friday weekend. Cyber Monday discounts tend to be an extension of Black Friday deals for shoppers returning to the office after a holiday weekend, eyeing merchandise online. Like Black Friday this year, Cyber Monday deals are starting earlier in the hopes that shoppers will respond over the weekend. This comes at the heels of third-quarter earnings releases where retailers are providing cautious guidance and are warning of a price-sensitive consumer. So, will the promotions be enough to entice shoppers to open their wallets? LSEG holiday sales forecast Spending for the

The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q2 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 17.6% growth over last year’s levels. Our metrics show that six of 10 consumer-related industries have turned negative (Exhibit 1). Of the 199 retailers tracked by LSEG, the Broadline Retail sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the second quarter, recording a 1040.5% surge over last year’s level. In fact, it has been the strongest performing sector over the past year as consumers’ preferences have pivoted towards services. Making up for

The Refinitiv U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q1 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 25.5% growth over last year’s levels. Our metrics show that seven of 10 consumer-related industries have turned negative (Exhibit 1). Of the 204 retailers tracked by Refinitiv, the Hotels, Restaurant & Leisure sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the first quarter, recording a 3245.6% surge over last year’s level. In fact, it has been the strongest performing sector over the past year as consumers’ preferences have changed towards services. Making

To date, 192 of the 201 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2022, representing 96% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 66% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 30% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2022 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at -21.5%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 192 companies that have reported is 5.8% for Q4 2022. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 65% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 161 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their earnings results for Q2 2022, representing 79% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 74% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 2% delivered on-target results and 24% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2022 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at -6.3%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 9.1% for Q2 2022. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 60% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’

Refinitiv has seen big spikes in Eikon Usage data for airline, hotel and entertainment stocks as vaccination rates continue to rise (See exhibit 1).  Both the number of Eikon users and stock hits for these stocks have been on the rise and are considerably higher compared to pre-pandemic levels. The strong and positive correlation between the data sets is significant, underlying users’ prospects on the re-opening trade. Exhibit 1: U.S. Vaccinations % of Population vs. Airline, Hotels & Entertainment stocks views on Eikon Still, as COVID concerns return, these re-opening stocks keep being pushed back. These industries remain vulnerable as