To date, 159 of the 195 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2024, representing 82% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 74% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 7% delivered on-target results and 19% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 14.6%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 159 companies in this index is 4.1% for Q4 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 70% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

The U.S. economy is still running too hot for comfort. Prices rose in January by 0.5% from the prior month, nudging the annual increase up to the psychologically testing 3% threshold. It’s another roadblock for further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. More importantly, it leaves even less room for President Donald Trump, whose tariff plans could stoke inflation further. Something must give – raising the specter of recession. Inflationary pressure is the result of a gaggle of disparate causes: egg prices were up 15% over the prior month; car insurance is nearly 12% more expensive than last year. Sure, prices for

The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q4 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 13.0% growth over last year’s levels. Our metrics show that six of 10 consumer-related industries have turned negative. (Exhibit 1) Of the 195 retailers tracked by LSEG, the Broadline Retail sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the fourth quarter, recording a 71.0% surge over last year’s level. The second-strongest sector is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure with a 6.2% growth estimate. Consumer Confidence improved towards the end of the fourth quarter,

During the U.S. presidential election campaign, Donald Trump promised to fix the economy by eliminating inflation, cutting taxes and increasing tariffs. This raises a challenge for asset allocators as to how these policies will hit expected asset returns in the short and long run. The incoming president will inherit a robust economy with a labor market in rude health and unemployment at only 4.1%. Real wages are rising and job openings, although down from post-pandemic levels, are still at the same highs reached during 2018-19, as shown in exhibit 1. Exhibit 1: U.S. Labor Market Indicators Furthermore, the ex ante

The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q3 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 2.1% growth over last year’s levels. Our metrics show that seven of 10 consumer-related industries have turned negative. (Exhibit 1) Of the 193 retailers tracked by LSEG, the broadline retail sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the third quarter, recording a 19.4% surge over last year’s level. The second strongest sector is the household products with a 6.5% growth estimate. Consumer Confidence remained volatile in the third quarter. In the

To date, 196 of the 199 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2024, representing 99% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 71% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 5% delivered on-target results and 24% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 14.4%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 199 companies in this index is 3.6% for Q2 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 49% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 187 of the 199 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2024, representing 94% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 71% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 5% delivered on-target results and 24% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 14.3%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 199 companies in this index is 3.6% for Q2 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 51% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 183 of the 199 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2024, representing 91% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 72% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 24% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 14.4%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 199 companies in this index is 3.6% for Q2 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 51% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 181 of the 199 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2024, representing 91% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 72% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 24% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 14.4%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 199 companies in this index is 3.7% for Q2 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 51% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 168 of the 199 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2024, representing 84% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 72% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 24% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 14.2%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 199 companies in this index is 3.7% for Q2 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 51% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 149 of the 199 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2024, representing 75% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 71% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 25% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 13.2%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 199 companies in this index is 3.6% for Q2 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 50% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 145 of the 199 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2024, representing 73% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 71% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 25% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 12.9%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 199 companies in this index is 3.5% for Q2 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 49% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and