
Before Donald Trump’s election victory in 2016, we set out two economic scenarios for the global economy: Trump Lite and Donald Dark. With fiscal stimulus implemented, business confidence close to record highs, GDP growth strong and some radical proposals canned, we are in a Trump Lite world. But with Sino-US trade tensions moving beyond the threat phase and continuing to escalate, we have taken a step towards our Donald Dark scenario. We have previously likened the trade negotiations to a game of chicken, which we expected the US to win; our China Exposure Index (CEI) suggests that, until recently, investors held