The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q2 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 17.6% growth over last year’s levels. Our metrics show that six of 10 consumer-related industries have turned negative (Exhibit 1). Of the 199 retailers tracked by LSEG, the Broadline Retail sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the second quarter, recording a 1040.5% surge over last year’s level. In fact, it has been the strongest performing sector over the past year as consumers’ preferences have pivoted towards services. Making up for

The Refinitiv U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q1 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 25.5% growth over last year’s levels. Our metrics show that seven of 10 consumer-related industries have turned negative (Exhibit 1). Of the 204 retailers tracked by Refinitiv, the Hotels, Restaurant & Leisure sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the first quarter, recording a 3245.6% surge over last year’s level. In fact, it has been the strongest performing sector over the past year as consumers’ preferences have changed towards services. Making

To date, 161 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their earnings results for Q2 2022, representing 79% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 74% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 2% delivered on-target results and 24% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2022 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at -6.3%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 9.1% for Q2 2022. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 60% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’

Our forecasts for US GDP growth and monetary policy are unchanged following progress on tax reform, the nomination of Jerome Powell for Fed Chair, and the employment report for October. Nonfarm payrolls rebounded last month, as we expected, suggesting that most of the damage to the labour market from the recent hurricanes was short-lived. For more see ‘How Hurricanes Harvey and Irma affected the US economy’. The US economy added 261,000 net payrolls last month, which may have been a little less than our forecast of a gain of 300,000, but there were a combined 90,000 upward revisions to payrolls