On Tuesday 9 May, we presented an overview of our Global Economic and Markets Outlook for 2017 Q2 at an event hosted by Thomson Reuters in London. We were joined by former Bank of England policymakers Paul Fisher, Ian Plenderleith and Sushil Wadhwani. Fathom Director Erik Britton began by setting out what, in our judgment, is the most likely outcome for the global economy. Despite wobbles over his initial failure to replace Obamacare, our central scenario sees US President Donald Trump enact a substantial fiscal stimulus package. There is a material pick-up in growth, with the US economy expanding by

Early last year we raised the prospect of China throwing in the towel on reform and rebalancing. By April, with the authorities still struggling to rebalance and economic growth well below the desired level, we felt that a change of course was imminent and the idea that China would ‘double down’ became our central scenario. As if on cue, indicators associated with China’s old growth model – such as the growth in investment by state-owned enterprises – picked up, and our China Momentum Indicator (CMI) bottomed out. Refresh the chart in your browser | Edit chart in Datastream   Our